Stocks · resolved market
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8213d395e079614d6c4d7f4cbb9be9337ab51648a21cc2a334ae8f1966d164b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,252,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,223,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,252,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e4d…f703backed No | 19c | 85,174$15,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,982.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…fac1backed Yes | 17c | 65,543$11,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,475.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +445.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 77c | 60,824$47,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,797.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d1…8a18backed No | 16c | 58,899$9,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,670.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed No | 78c | 53,980$41,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,897.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…7e7dbacked Yes | 52c | 45,956$24,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,955.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 17c | 44,649$7,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,748.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 12c | 30,196$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…63c7backed Yes | 31c | 30,000$9,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,753.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +224.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b1…c12ebacked Yes | 75c | 26,924$20,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,824.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…af94backed No | 23c | 26,636$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78b…66abbacked Yes | 38c | 26,477$10,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,466.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +115%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed No | 19c | 22,593$4,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,398.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…ea9ebacked No | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d5…0a45backed No | 3c | 20,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184e…cf96backed Yes | 80c | 20,000$15,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,091.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d9…fd2fbacked Yes | 76c | 17,717$13,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,168.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 26c | 17,682$4,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,157.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 78c | 17,297$13,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,787.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 27c | 17,000$4,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,467.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +209.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 13c | 16,194$2,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,136.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 16c | 16,106$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 10c | 15,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb688…6862backed No | 11c | 14,009$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 27c | 13,004$3,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,475 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…6bc1backed No | 23c | 12,694$2,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,914.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 17c | 11,064$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed No | 15c | 10,959$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…1640backed No | 16c | 10,733$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…eeb2backed No | 19c | 10,236$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02a…86c6backed No | 71c | 10,000$7,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed No | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…4c3cbacked No | 25c | 9,866$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…1513backed No | 27c | 9,510$2,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 19c | 9,434$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…74bcbacked Yes | 34c | 9,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,940 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 8,101$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 7c | 8,029$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…d5bdbacked Yes | 14c | 8,005$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,919.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +637%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 13c | 7,854$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd413…ce5fbacked No | 13c | 7,692$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 19c | 7,554$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 24c | 7,450$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x523f…77acbacked No | 18c | 7,406$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed Yes | 21c | 7,269$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,708.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +365.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked No | 15c | 6,600$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6d…4251backed Yes | 71c | 6,483$4,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 23c | 6,440$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.79 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed No | 11c | 6,338$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 35c | 6,208$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…a1bfbacked No | 22c | 6,200$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…90c2backed No | 20c | 6,000$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…a144backed Yes | 33c | 5,926$1,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,970.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked No | 51c | 5,900$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,014.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d3…a201backed Yes | 13c | 5,774$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,023.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 10c | 5,515$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 18c | 5,310$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 13c | 5,227$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed No | 73c | 5,204$3,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,788.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 26c | 5,175$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked No | 13c | 5,166$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes | 18c | 5,108$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,178.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 11cpaid | +508.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked No | 67c | 5,052$3,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,407.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…40fdbacked No | 14c | 5,015$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,659.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4610backed Yes | 40c | 4,900$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,952 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed No | 17c | 4,742$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…7f92backed Yes | 71c | 4,658$3,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f3…b577backed Yes | 78c | 4,584$3,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +240.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa641…740cbacked Yes | 10c | 4,450$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,992.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +510.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a3…12f0backed No | 18c | 4,443$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 27c | 4,100$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,004.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb2…1872backed No | 18c | 4,084$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c08…1ff6backed Yes | 15c | 4,067$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,473.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +534.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf622…162ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,861$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,321.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 26c | 3,846$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,846.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…ab7dbacked No | 20c | 3,708$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f2…89a3backed No | 14c | 3,570$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 10c | 3,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…8999backed Yes | 29c | 3,463$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,468.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +574.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…4877backed No | 11c | 3,412$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…8944backed No | 22c | 3,251$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe3…0b09backed No | 10c | 3,225$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 15c | 3,160$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 12c | 3,155$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,776.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked No | 15c | 3,147$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…68c5backed No | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…1f5cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,579.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +643.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…d725backed No | 15c | 3,000$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed No | 17c | 2,941$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked No | 45c | 2,895$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…0129backed Yes | 78c | 2,854$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…74b2backed No | 73c | 2,748$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 24c | 2,707$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…804fbacked Yes | 35c | 2,707$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 12c | 2,692$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,368.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 12cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe527…2131backed No | 19c | 2,691$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…39ebbacked No | 76c | 2,589$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?this page
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?No won
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No won
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.