TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x252c…391a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
72
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Weather, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.56
Will SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$539Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$189.28
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$181.35
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.48
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$191.76
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.08
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+25%+$52.6
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$421.03
Will Jensen Huang say "Training" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.68
Will "Ayatollah" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+88.7%+$138.65
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.48
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$419.58
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.12
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$160.06
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.47
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.17
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.95
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.75
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+49.3%+$186.45
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+138.1%+$48.72
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick56cpaid+69.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.16
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$594Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$254.4
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+49.3%+$110.22
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+100%+$46.5
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$911Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+25%+$227.8
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+354.5%+$230.1
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$157.5
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-57.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+135.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+213.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+109.9%+$405.79
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+316.7%+$339.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+242.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$32.43
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$318.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick67cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+9,114.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+9,114.4%+$1,064.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$2,776.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$601.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+47.1%+$54.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?backed OpenAI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$330.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$449.82
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.