Movies · resolved market
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7637152211a3b023ae829fb73e3353d2ae3ba8486143ad7a1525085af70e5389
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,124 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d78…b133backed Yes | 0c | 5,038$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Yes | 14c | 1,003$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 11c | 877$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes | 11c | 743$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…b27dbacked Yes | 16c | 629.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 19c | 626$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3af…c794backed Yes | 3c | 583.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 14c | 548$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 10c | 541.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…d02cbacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 9c | 473.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 16c | 459$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…dff2backed Yes | 17c | 406.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked Yes | 13c | 404$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…7be8backed Yes | 19c | 350.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…82dcbacked Yes | 17c | 271.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…e8fdbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 12c | 257$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 12c | 237$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…a6acbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 19c | 190$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf36c…6b40backed Yes | 15c | 189.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 16c | 181$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 29c | 180$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 19c | 175$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…09bdbacked Yes | 10c | 173$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed Yes | 15c | 165.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e8…ee0dbacked Yes | 17c | 143.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 141.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…9d16backed Yes | 15c | 137.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 73c | 136$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff5…4166backed Yes | 15c | 134.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…8944backed Yes | 19c | 132.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…04a3backed Yes | 16c | 126.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Yes | 13c | 124.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 14c | 115.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2407…577ebacked Yes | 12c | 108.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 19c | 106.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 105.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…e2e9backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…7258backed Yes | 11c | 102.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 14c | 102.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681e…5394backed Yes | 29c | 102.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b0…8d73backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…26f9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…4e28backed Yes | 16c | 90.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…c4ffbacked Yes | 24c | 83.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da9…b9c9backed Yes | 24c | 76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 79c | 35.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 32.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 80c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 79c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "Frankenstein" win 6 or more awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Frankenstein" win no awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.