TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x656c…af94

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: AI, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category AI at 58 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.04
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.33
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$54.87
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.41
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$97.24
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.5
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$356.49
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+49.3%+$115.17
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$464.1
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$135.72
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.6
Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+222.6%+$254.61
Will Trump say "Think about" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+72.4%+$67.62
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$44.16
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+56.3%+$72
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$256.5
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$94.17
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+270.4%+$312.44
All 18 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$673Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$673.32
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.6
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$349.92
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$414.1
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+300%+$619.5
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$209
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$249.63
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$538Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$422.84
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$254.56
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$117.6
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+203%+$263.31
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$377.96
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.92
Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$664Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+85.2%+$565.34
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.45 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$323.75
Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+29.9%+$33.12
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$109.89
All 17 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick33cpaid+134.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+101.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+76.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$191.1
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$327Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$383.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$353.29
Will Atlético Madrid advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$74.13
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nida Allam be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+244.8%+$262.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Patrik Antonius win at Hustler Casino on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+194.1%+$186.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Igor Jesus score the most goals in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$305.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+56.3%+$175.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$143.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+38.9%+$117.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$469Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+25.9%+$121.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$373.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Grambling State Tigersbacked Grambling State Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$327.06
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.