Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x235726cacefb617463b46929961c9778274954bb14ffff9683e179aff0acc32e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac3c…d637backed No | 64c | 21,700$13,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,805 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…faf1backed Yes | 36c | 21,700$7,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,805 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…1926backed No | 0c | 10,473$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…8db6backed No | 60c | 9,700$5,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,818 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84e…88a3backed Yes | 40c | 9,643$3,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,783.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 74c | 1,254$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…6764backed Yes | 64c | 1,233$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…f582backed No | 73c | 1,222$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…86b7backed No | 70c | 1,181$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,067$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,049$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.26 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…6bbebacked No | 74c | 1,027$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9fa3backed No | 74c | 932$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed Yes | 30c | 897$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…5f6abacked Yes | 26c | 884$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 70c | 882$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed No | 74c | 876$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 74c | 870$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 27c | 840$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…2213backed No | 73c | 826$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 26c | 809$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.66 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 57c | 777.06$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.83 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…4674backed No | 70c | 735$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 74c | 729$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed Yes | 26c | 715$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 26c | 694$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.56 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 74c | 694$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…9184backed Yes | 27c | 676$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.48 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed No | 70c | 669$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked Yes | 30c | 645$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed Yes | 32c | 634.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.67 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed Yes | 30c | 624$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +92%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 73c | 587$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 30c | 578$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 26c | 575$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked No | 74c | 574$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed Yes | 26c | 524$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked No | 74c | 496$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed Yes | 26c | 480$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 30c | 455$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 27c | 432$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 74c | 431$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 26c | 431$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.94 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 30c | 430$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 27c | 428$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes | 26c | 411$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.14 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…e547backed Yes | 37c | 406.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked No | 70c | 403$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 49c | 387.26$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 359.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 30c | 344$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes | 40c | 327.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.65 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked Yes | 26c | 322$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed No | 62c | 299.96$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed No | 70c | 299$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…579fbacked No | 69c | 251.79$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 26c | 251$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 78c | 250.08$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 26c | 235$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 70c | 232$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 29c | 227.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 35c | 219.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.73 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed No | 74c | 219$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 74c | 218$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 41c | 215.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…f7a5backed No | 70c | 214$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 213.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.43 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 41c | 209.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…9b1abacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 199.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1641…17a9backed No | 26c | 194.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 30c | 192$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 64c | 189.53$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 80c | 182.21$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0900…3e1dbacked Yes | 32c | 170$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…b248backed No | 67c | 167.12$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 74c | 166$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 67c | 165.19$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…9530backed No | 64c | 156.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…7222backed No | 66c | 151.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 30c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 77c | 130.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 29c | 126.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked No | 70c | 124$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 33c | 120.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…88fabacked No | 70c | 119.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…0511backed Yes | 27c | 118$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…9c48backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…fe71backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 96.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 26c | 94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 89.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 23c | 85.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 82.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…06ffbacked No | 64c | 77.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe048…6006backed No | 66c | 75.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.