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Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,588 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac3c…d637backed No64c21,700$13,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,8051030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x484a…faf1backed Yes36c21,700$7,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,8051266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+78.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc65e…1926backed No0c10,473$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x407d…8db6backed No60c9,700$5,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,818366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+51.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84e…88a3backed Yes40c9,643$3,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,783.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f2…2badbacked No74c1,254$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.961450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f7…6764backed Yes64c1,233$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.61683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc112…f582backed No73c1,222$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.06520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-74.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x033c…86b7backed No70c1,181$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes26c1,067$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+128.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes26c1,049$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.261931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c55…6bbebacked No74c1,027$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.98650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0666…9fa3backed No74c932$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.68633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc70…50c0backed Yes30c897$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5d…5f6abacked Yes26c884$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+78.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed No70c882$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.42035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c9…bee7backed No74c876$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.24966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+76.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43c9…47c1backed No74c870$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.81747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes27c840$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+122.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02ce…2213backed No73c826$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes26c809$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.664242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes57c777.06$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.838243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6509…4674backed No70c735$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8de5…9416backed No74c729$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.461643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x628e…4580backed Yes26c715$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.1580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.45per pick35cpaid+138.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed Yes26c694$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.562653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed No74c694$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.562630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-27.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5565…9184backed Yes27c676$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.485100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+124.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa098…81e4backed No70c669$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.3955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6537…fcecbacked Yes30c645$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes32c634.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.673046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x612d…3fd1backed Yes30c624$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.81172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+92%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb976…c213backed Yes30c600$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce55…c888backed No73c587$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.061442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e77…3273backed Yes30c578$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.6850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes26c575$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.51675%12 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+40.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x42a0…4d9abacked No74c574$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.761729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a04…2310backed Yes26c524$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a5…b42cbacked No74c496$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.04450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1639…e706backed Yes26c480$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick40cpaid+111.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked Yes30c455$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.51145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes27c432$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+62.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed No74c431$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.941154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+56.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes26c431$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.942055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes30c430$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3013246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed Yes27c428$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.441838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes26c411$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.141080%8 W · 2 L+4.2wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+140.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a1e…e547backed Yes37c406.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.24771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick39cpaid+75.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36b8…ac4cbacked No70c403$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.11346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb8…f154backed Yes49c387.26$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.392045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No16c359.58$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6430649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x87d6…9357backed Yes30c344$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.81154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes40c327.5$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.651520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa680…c13fbacked Yes26c322$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.281250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7277…ab80backed No62c299.96$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.971330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a92…d2e9backed No70c299$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-41.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0554…579fbacked No69c251.79$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.841258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes26c251$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.741560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes78c250.08$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.088867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes26c235$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.92254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb25…5b6bbacked No70c232$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.42142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No29c227.57$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9112433.1%41 W · 83 L-12.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes35c219.59$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.733231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick20cpaid+71.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x86a2…02c0backed No74c219$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.061258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked No74c218$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.321947.4%9 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick65cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No41c215.59$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.337938%30 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x203f…f7a5backed No70c214$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+141.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes35c213.69$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4385725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No41c209.6$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.754418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a4c…9b1abacked No68c200$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c199.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2967841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1641…17a9backed No26c194.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1184…1b67backed Yes30c192$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.42352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No64c189.53$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12122262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes80c182.21$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1628438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0900…3e1dbacked Yes32c170$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb964…b248backed No67c167.12$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.852548%12 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x528f…7572backed No74c166$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.842441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No67c165.19$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6814821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xcc82…9530backed No64c156.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.761435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7c3…7222backed No66c151.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No30c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.611329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes77c130.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.317726%20 W · 57 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes29c126.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.457140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d04…131dbacked No70c124$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+50.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes33c120.55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5517128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab6…88fabacked No70c119.19$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01d6…0511backed Yes27c118$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick23cpaid+142.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2829254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8740…9c48backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd71f…fe71backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9913140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c96.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed Yes26c94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.562060%12 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+54.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No70c89.82$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.735652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked No23c85.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.669446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No25c82.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.451,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…14f5backed Yes28c80$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.64866.7%32 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2b8b…06ffbacked No64c77.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.81966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe048…6006backed No66c75.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.