Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd5808b8f538909761a28948959b55711fc0f883dfb04f22ddf7567294227359
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27c3…18cfbacked No | 3c | 23,422$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…5184backed No | 2c | 3,884$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 3c | 3,505$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…6b95backed No | 39c | 3,200$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4375…303cbacked Yes | 61c | 3,200$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 6c | 2,672$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.11 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 75c | 2,123$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.99 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 8c | 1,942$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.54 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…68e9backed No | 6c | 1,682$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed No | 22c | 1,337$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.56 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…1eeebacked No | 45c | 1,239$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 16c | 1,020$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.95 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 25c | 988.41$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.7 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 900$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…5692backed No | 2c | 888.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed No | 12c | 822.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed No | 29c | 747.91$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.65 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 27c | 738.68$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.26 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ea…209bbacked No | 42c | 726.64$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…6943backed Yes | 77c | 647.21$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…36dfbacked Yes | 73c | 641.93$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 67c | 629.41$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.03 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…e8d4backed No | 16c | 625.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…9f5bbacked No | 33c | 607.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 2c | 599.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 3c | 599.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 50c | 596$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.73 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 548.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…486abacked No | 3c | 544.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked No | 32c | 480.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.32 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 19c | 455$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 47c | 452.47$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.54 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 70c | 446.14$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.7 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 423.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed No | 30c | 422.09$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.05 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 13c | 366.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…941abacked Yes | 70c | 349.61$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f3…6062backed Yes | 47c | 345.94$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 21c | 340.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b2…a12cbacked No | 7c | 304.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…066bbacked No | 71c | 285.08$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…8d46backed Yes | 59c | 276.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 22c | 276.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 17c | 248.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.23 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 245.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 68c | 227.27$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.68 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 63c | 226$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.94 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…3d31backed Yes | 45c | 223.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…9d2bbacked Yes | 66c | 221.51$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd98…9b63backed Yes | 74c | 218.5$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 216.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 76c | 215.29$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 33c | 207.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc85c…cffbbacked Yes | 72c | 194$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 61c | 190.87$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 35c | 170.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 59c | 169$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…21dabacked Yes | 75c | 167.85$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed No | 65c | 152.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 25c | 152.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…d17dbacked No | 73c | 136.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed No | 14c | 118.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 113.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 108.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 35c | 108.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…6bb6backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…b2acbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 23c | 99.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 30c | 96.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x727a…02cabacked Yes | 72c | 89.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 44c | 89.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 26c | 84.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 25c | 82.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 32c | 81.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 31c | 81.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 66c | 79.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…72d0backed No | 36c | 76.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…f382backed Yes | 39c | 76.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed No | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b68…2273backed Yes | 69c | 70.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 44c | 63.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 60c | 62.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…5ed7backed Yes | 68c | 62.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 40c | 58.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…4380backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 72c | 55.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…2030backed Yes | 49c | 50.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.