TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,311
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$117,769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,311 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x27c3…18cfbacked No3c23,422$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa894…5184backed No2c3,884$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No3c3,505$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2942329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a0c…6b95backed No39c3,200$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4375…303cbacked Yes61c3,200$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5602…c12bbacked No6c2,672$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.112835.7%10 W · 18 L+7.3wins+0.26per pick10cpaid+359.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes75c2,123$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.997751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No8c1,942$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f08…68e9backed No6c1,682$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.68728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed No22c1,337$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.566944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a3f…1eeebacked No45c1,239$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.71030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-55%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No16c1,020$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.9511329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No2c1,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8940939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No25c988.41$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.735819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c900$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.657135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a22…5692backed No2c888.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed No12c822.96$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed No29c747.91$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.657741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No27c738.68$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2631344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56ea…209bbacked No42c726.64$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.251625%4 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-57%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7bd5…6943backed Yes77c647.21$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.211250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1413…36dfbacked Yes73c641.93$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.32966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes67c629.41$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.0311350.4%57 W · 56 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba97…e8d4backed No16c625.42$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.081060%6 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+76.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2aa9…9f5bbacked No33c607.21$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No2c599.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No3c599.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes50c596$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.736726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No3c548.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.94195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001c…486abacked No3c544.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27511424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9612…205abacked No32c480.28$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.323033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No19c455$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.384928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No47c452.47$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5415629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes70c446.14$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.710165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No25c423.13$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2589617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x89a9…41d1backed No30c422.09$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.053531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.64625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No13c366.96$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.77439.2%29 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.20per pick19cpaid+102%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0e18…941abacked Yes70c349.61$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.291546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc4f3…6062backed Yes47c345.94$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.341637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed No21c340.15$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.387536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17b2…a12cbacked No7c304.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No5c299.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.77694.3%3 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ddc…066bbacked No71c285.08$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.251030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d76…8d46backed Yes59c276.99$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.481050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No22c276.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2721333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes17c248.57$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.2330649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No10c245.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.771,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No68c227.27$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.685749.1%28 W · 29 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No63c226$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.944445.5%20 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc4ca…3d31backed Yes45c223.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.24757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8088…9d2bbacked Yes66c221.51$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.312075%15 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd98…9b63backed Yes74c218.5$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.81560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No27c216.25$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes76c215.29$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.954418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed No33c207.69$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.895930.5%18 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No5c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81836%5 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc043…eb1bbacked No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No30c199.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc85c…cffbbacked Yes72c194$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.321266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes61c190.87$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.537938%30 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked No35c170.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8df5…e945backed Yes59c169$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.291850%9 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa32…21dabacked Yes75c167.85$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.052138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x512c…d419backed No65c152.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.34per pick61cpaid-59.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No25c152.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2711226.8%30 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79e5…d17dbacked No73c136.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed No14c118.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No45c113.62$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8285725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c108.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3634432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No35c108.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5735652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7068…6bb6backed Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.871361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+42%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0eba…b2acbacked Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb244…95fbbacked No23c99.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.75729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes30c96.67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.675952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x727a…02cabacked Yes72c89.26$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.261118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…14f5backed No44c89.09$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.954866.7%32 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes26c84.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7616440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cc0…8100backed No25c82.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.725617.9%10 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-49%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed No32c81.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.735437%20 W · 34 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed Yes31c81.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.671553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+60.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe154…14e8backed Yes66c79.89$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.225529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa003…72d0backed No36c76.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.68911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x487b…f382backed Yes39c76.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.292263.6%14 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+39.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa90a…da95backed No55c73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.153256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b68…2273backed Yes69c70.97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.311330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8992…40dbbacked Yes44c63.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.84326.3%2 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-87.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes60c62.91$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0716046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7e…5ed7backed Yes68c62.67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.042437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.321879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.69240.2%37 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8691…28a0backed Yes40c58.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.23647.2%17 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5508…4380backed No35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f80…7be8backed Yes72c55.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.623672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec9a…2030backed Yes49c50.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.992330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb79…6274backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.