TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,504

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac3c…d637backed No64c21,700$13,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,8881030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x484a…faf1backed Yes36c21,700$7,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,8881266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+78.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No2c14,307$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.940433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c6,643$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No3c2,653$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7740939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No7c2,420$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.6917414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked No10c917.07$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.719446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb64…1975backed Yes42c884.14$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.671127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes28c832$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.04837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No27c824.22$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.337938%30 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c9…bee7backed No72c772$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.84966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+76.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bd4…c334backed Yes29c754$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.341266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+43.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb976…c213backed No71c754$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.341546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…8234backed Yes28c753.16$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes23c732.28$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.9242738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x541a…1740backed Yes28c717$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.24742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes28c694$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.681154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffa1…15bdbacked No72c644$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.68955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+62.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b8b…06ffbacked No32c624.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d09…42b7backed Yes28c564$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…644ebacked No72c544$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.68944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed No14c503.4$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick16cpaid+55.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf907…e7dbbacked No72c502$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No9c500.36$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4321333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed Yes18c499.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.991154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes32c406.54$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.373046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9941…7fd9backed Yes28c404$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.88862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+85.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0554…579fbacked No70c355.02$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409a…4e8fbacked No72c354$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.88771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+62.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No38c352.24$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7435652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c8…e61bbacked No72c352$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.44850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked No8c350.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3125518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No15c340.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6913342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c65…5ad5backed No72c340$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37d1…c685backed No70c340$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…e251backed Yes30c331.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.591464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699855.1%54 W · 44 L+24.9wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+76.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x5a1e…e547backed Yes33c299.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.53771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick39cpaid+75.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes31c298.36$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.4931344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked No68c297.87$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.55825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked No72c285$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.21947.4%9 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick65cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes24c271.77$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.564418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa71c…d0a8backed No72c253$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.161936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x203f…f7a5backed Yes28c253$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.16580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+141.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes33c247.3$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.692334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…a432backed No72c239$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.08128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick38cpaid-84.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0016…1b7abacked No72c210$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d03…ef8ebacked No72c204$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.881010%1 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick45cpaid-78.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd3…5cf0backed No73c200$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1464353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No68c199.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x496f…8a5bbacked No65c195.63$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No37c184.65$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9985725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed No11c179.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.28452.4%44 W · 40 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e34…f895backed No66c163.75$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.381030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed Yes28c158$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.762060%12 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+54.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4544…9995backed No13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes26c149.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2912227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cdf…adc5backed No67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d70…085cbacked No70c142.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0d…c021backed No74c136$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes41c134.54$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.548867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xeb65…3115backed Yes34c133.73$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.113638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No32c130.58$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes25c130.09$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.0615951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes31c127.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3317128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes15c124.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3311329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes29c114.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5713140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed No14c110.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.056149.2%30 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bfa…f779backed No15c109.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.272634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30cc…331abacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x58b1…bdc0backed Yes25c98.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.87119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-64%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d82…ed61backed Yes31c97.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.644845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes28c97.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.423056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No21c95.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes63c95.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6728438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…31febacked No74c92.09$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No33c90$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3026756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc881…e370backed No20c89.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.121827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes28c80$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.61573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.30per pick43cpaid+110.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x96c5…ada8backed Yes28c78.44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.381533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb57…7a87backed No73c77.71$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.73560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f79…ad8abacked Yes31c77.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.082254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x738b…6dc9backed Yes50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3510246.1%47 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9c…b418backed No72c69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.68850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ed3…dbb9backed Yes43c64.48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes29c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.616046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b90…7293backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa596…1d4cbacked No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x737c…a65dbacked No70c49.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352875%21 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed No71c49.3$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13b…0e2bbacked No69c43.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.991643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcd…883dbacked No75c42.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.931233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.9wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-47.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa0f3…7494backed No72c42.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked No72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ade…2e95backed No71c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.42055%11 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a5…e8e7backed No70c39.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb8…8326backed No72c36.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.34757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.