Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5cc72be80b4daa0c4d0043a74abd8d2d8871c699bde1acf0570239994f8251f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac3c…d637backed No | 64c | 21,700$13,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,888 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…faf1backed Yes | 36c | 21,700$7,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,888 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 2c | 14,307$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.9 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 6,643$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 3c | 2,653$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 7c | 2,420$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 10c | 917.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb64…1975backed Yes | 42c | 884.14$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 28c | 832$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 27c | 824.22$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.33 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed No | 72c | 772$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 29c | 754$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.34 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 71c | 754$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed Yes | 28c | 753.16$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 23c | 732.28$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.92 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…1740backed Yes | 28c | 717$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 28c | 694$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked No | 72c | 644$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…06ffbacked No | 32c | 624.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…42b7backed Yes | 28c | 564$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked No | 72c | 544$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 14c | 503.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked No | 72c | 502$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 9c | 500.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed Yes | 32c | 406.54$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.37 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 28c | 404$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…579fbacked No | 70c | 355.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked No | 72c | 354$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 38c | 352.24$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 72c | 352$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 8c | 350.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 15c | 340.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…5ad5backed No | 72c | 340$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…c685backed No | 70c | 340$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…e251backed Yes | 30c | 331.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…e547backed Yes | 33c | 299.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 31c | 298.36$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.49 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked No | 68c | 297.87$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 72c | 285$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 24c | 271.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.56 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 72c | 253$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…f7a5backed Yes | 28c | 253$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 33c | 247.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.69 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed No | 72c | 239$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.08 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked No | 72c | 210$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked No | 72c | 204$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd3…5cf0backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…8a5bbacked No | 65c | 195.63$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 184.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 11c | 179.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…f895backed No | 66c | 163.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 28c | 158$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4544…9995backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 26c | 149.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…adc5backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…085cbacked No | 70c | 142.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0d…c021backed No | 74c | 136$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 41c | 134.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 34c | 133.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 32c | 130.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 25c | 130.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 31c | 127.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 15c | 124.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 29c | 114.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 14c | 110.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 15c | 109.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30cc…331abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58b1…bdc0backed Yes | 25c | 98.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -64%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…ed61backed Yes | 31c | 97.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 28c | 97.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 95.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 63c | 95.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…31febacked No | 74c | 92.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc881…e370backed No | 20c | 89.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96c5…ada8backed Yes | 28c | 78.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…7a87backed No | 73c | 77.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…ad8abacked Yes | 31c | 77.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…dbb9backed Yes | 43c | 64.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…7293backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…1d4cbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…a65dbacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed No | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…883dbacked No | 75c | 42.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…7494backed No | 72c | 42.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ade…2e95backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…e8e7backed No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…8326backed No | 72c | 36.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.