Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x633180c3c22e6ad6ca500bdcc370a0f3228367bc87ca3ee5d0bb0d0d749cf573
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 4,247$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…93d7backed Yes | 4c | 3,301$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…6943backed Yes | 54c | 2,434$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,431$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…61aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,719$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 7c | 1,267$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 50c | 1,007$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 984.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c9…f8f2backed Yes | 27c | 977.2$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 24c | 918.56$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.32 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 891.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 876.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 48c | 863.37$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.63 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 4c | 811.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 806.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebe…19d4backed Yes | 1c | 746.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 40c | 731.41$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 660$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 62c | 606.06$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.61 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 21c | 527.12$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x303d…a1c9backed Yes | 27c | 510.2$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 499.97$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.59 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 61c | 399.15$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.81 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b10…e48fbacked Yes | 27c | 364.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 25c | 325.05$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.83 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 51c | 322.02$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.05 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 17c | 318.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 309.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 27c | 299.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…0574backed Yes | 13c | 299.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 299.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 48c | 281.29$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 64c | 271.63$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…61b5backed No | 74c | 271.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…7443backed No | 61c | 270.95$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 73c | 252.66$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…fa8cbacked No | 77c | 252.52$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf77a…d0c7backed Yes | 21c | 237.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 17c | 218$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.78 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…21dabacked Yes | 12c | 217.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…6315backed Yes | 43c | 204.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 201.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 200.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 71c | 199.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…9546backed No | 74c | 187.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…39f8backed No | 64c | 187.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 180.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 58c | 171.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 15c | 167.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…d8c4backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 26c | 163.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 15c | 159.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…49b2backed No | 63c | 158.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30cb…1e58backed No | 61c | 149.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031f…77f1backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 27c | 146.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…d310backed No | 71c | 140.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…8d46backed Yes | 39c | 139.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed Yes | 26c | 138.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…486abacked Yes | 33c | 135.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 27c | 130.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…efc2backed No | 69c | 126.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 119.96$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 76c | 118.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 19c | 114.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 38c | 113.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad3c…02f3backed No | 59c | 111.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…6bfabacked No | 67c | 110.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…c218backed Yes | 12c | 108.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked No | 60c | 100.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…9d49backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…bf43backed No | 61c | 98.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed Yes | 30c | 92.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x800e…4595backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 31c | 87.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddde…0e06backed Yes | 12c | 87.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 38c | 86.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 24c | 83.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…d3e0backed No | 68c | 76.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…70dabacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f00fbacked No | 77c | 73.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 70c | 71.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…6babbacked No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 58c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 34c | 69.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 34c | 68.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…574abacked No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…995ebacked Yes | 73c | 67.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 61c | 67.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x385c…a385backed No | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 16c | 64.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf537…ef64backed No | 66c | 61.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2793…4e49backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.