Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x648b9b39410a16d18dc3b8a5211502664dce35a2ed3052f86f3fb3183aa3fd0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c8b…97efbacked No | 2c | 20,546$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,625$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 68c | 3,601$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.76 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727a…02cabacked No | 1c | 3,159$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…a0d0backed No | 57c | 2,527$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…6943backed Yes | 67c | 1,362$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 13c | 1,304$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.68 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 2cpaid | +2,900%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 34c | 999.96$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.97 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 730.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 30c | 730$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 678.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 66c | 668.65$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 2c | 632.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 35c | 628.69$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.69 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 29c | 611.83$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.48 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 5c | 579.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f4…d7eebacked Yes | 57c | 567.81$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed No | 73c | 550$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.5 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 52c | 537.58$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.89 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19e…0466backed No | 44c | 532.5$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc347…97bdbacked No | 72c | 504.35$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 35c | 474.69$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.77 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked No | 37c | 467.17$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 31c | 414.63$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 404.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…f382backed Yes | 49c | 396.72$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.71 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 43c | 393.92$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.13 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…52cdbacked No | 58c | 342.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 79c | 323.91$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 37c | 289.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.69 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed No | 69c | 287.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 24c | 189.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb467…1f8bbacked No | 69c | 185.32$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a1…9a5ebacked No | 50c | 177.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed Yes | 64c | 168.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…a3dbbacked No | 61c | 163.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…e7a3backed No | 73c | 158.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x812e…04d0backed No | 71c | 155.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 153.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 74c | 153$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…af26backed No | 65c | 152.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…f284backed No | 69c | 147.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 144.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196e…e2ecbacked Yes | 73c | 136.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 63c | 125.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 69c | 124.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5793…a3e5backed Yes | 55c | 119.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…655ebacked No | 44c | 113.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac19…1ae5backed No | 62c | 111.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…bb4bbacked Yes | 36c | 111.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7192…7169backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…07d1backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b3…92e9backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 99.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…2c9ebacked No | 61c | 98.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…8b4abacked Yes | 73c | 97.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 35c | 95.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 39c | 91.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…2a55backed Yes | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed No | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed No | 55c | 81.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04b…ff0ebacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…9a6cbacked Yes | 69c | 78.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…b2acbacked Yes | 42c | 78.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2744…39babacked Yes | 80c | 77.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked No | 68c | 73.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 34c | 71.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…8449backed Yes | 62c | 68.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa545…7e73backed Yes | 62c | 67.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 32c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…4d3ebacked No | 71c | 62.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…c1b3backed No | 47c | 61.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 61.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…1785backed Yes | 72c | 61.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…8d46backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe69b…f24fbacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes | 80c | 59.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…741bbacked Yes | 45c | 58.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 44c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c4…9ce6backed No | 57c | 51.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 55c | 50.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 24c | 50.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f3…6062backed Yes | 37c | 48.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 66c | 45.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…fafbbacked Yes | 51c | 43.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…6bb6backed Yes | 34c | 43.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.