Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c96c207ad1d5cf89ec70cac0b39d3db33809fa0362030d97316d802d8834665
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 1c | 20,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.13 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc43c…a74abacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…9d78backed No | 1c | 5,474$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 0c | 4,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 2c | 2,683$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed No | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked No | 70c | 1,392$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…3f94backed No | 2c | 1,189$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 69c | 1,040$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 31c | 865$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.85 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 1c | 810.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 32c | 781.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.75 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 68c | 774$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.32 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 749.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 32c | 718$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 3c | 665.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 665.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…6943backed Yes | 77c | 652.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 30c | 607.75$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed No | 68c | 530$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 68c | 485$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 32c | 466$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…a978backed No | 68c | 429.52$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 33c | 411.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 405.84$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.8 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 32c | 395$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.6 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 33c | 386$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.62 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 32c | 363$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 31c | 332$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes | 46c | 326.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.1 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…f382backed Yes | 31c | 317.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…a1a1backed No | 64c | 312.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 33c | 308$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.36 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 67c | 308$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 31c | 295.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 37c | 273.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 69c | 271$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.54 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 68c | 251$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 68c | 247$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.96 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 19c | 243$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed No | 67c | 231$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.37 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 31c | 225.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.83 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 68c | 216$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…2a55backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 67c | 195$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 183.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.63 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 27c | 171.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.43 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 53c | 169.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 35c | 162.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 160.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 68c | 156$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 32c | 151$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 32c | 146$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed No | 69c | 145.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked No | 64c | 139.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 73c | 136.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…7e0cbacked No | 63c | 127.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 28c | 117.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 69c | 111$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 47c | 97.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 29c | 97.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…e8d4backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 89.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed Yes | 30c | 83.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…f0aebacked No | 71c | 82.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12b…5210backed No | 68c | 79.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 31c | 77.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 32c | 69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc05b…f769backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ca…c1d1backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 61c | 59.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…ff12backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833b…d4bbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…ad69backed Yes | 39c | 52.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8440…a714backed Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 33c | 50.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…97bfbacked No | 74c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 70c | 46.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed No | 69c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 44c | 41.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…83c7backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…fafbbacked Yes | 45c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed No | 66c | 36.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -8.0wins | -0.50per pick | 68cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…3bb7backed No | 58c | 33.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…9fc7backed No | 72c | 27.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…a0e2backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…1d1dbacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe473…52f6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8147…5039backed No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.