Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d5fbb4c3009a651b3c6af3a536b35ce95b43de7c76ca0e756e011fb4f7a6d47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes | 26c | 4,093$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,392$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 8c | 2,342$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.91 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d29…af70backed Yes | 39c | 1,481$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.89 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 12c | 1,428$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked No | 67c | 1,150$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.89 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,095$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.14 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 57c | 1,061$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,041$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 889.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 1c | 882.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.25per pick | 23cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 869.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked Yes | 17c | 795.86$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.36 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…f382backed Yes | 2c | 790.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 67c | 718.2$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.91 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 66c | 698$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 669.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 621.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 615.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 43c | 598$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 582.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed No | 64c | 554$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 33c | 517$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked No | 66c | 511$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 67c | 510$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 36c | 507$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 6c | 499.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 34c | 467$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 34c | 452$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.68 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 43c | 451$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed No | 58c | 441.16$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 428.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 399.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed Yes | 6c | 354.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed No | 67c | 340$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 7c | 330$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 324.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 14c | 314.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 70c | 295.94$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 74c | 291.41$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 280.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.28 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 23c | 275.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 15c | 271$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 68c | 207$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 32c | 207$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 33c | 205$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…52a6backed No | 68c | 193.5$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 181.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 175.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…6c86backed No | 63c | 158.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…e038backed Yes | 29c | 153.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a3…0bacbacked No | 65c | 147.59$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c300backed No | 76c | 143.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…d3e7backed No | 70c | 142.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed No | 70c | 142.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 34c | 141$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 42c | 140.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…d713backed No | 63c | 134.74$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 33c | 128$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 58c | 127.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebd…9062backed No | 56c | 110.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…8b9ebacked Yes | 41c | 107.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3d47backed No | 77c | 107.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 46c | 107.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 70c | 105.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed Yes | 48c | 104.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 35c | 104.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…bf57backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…97bfbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 70c | 97.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 48c | 93.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2af…227cbacked Yes | 43c | 92.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked No | 76c | 87.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…c675backed Yes | 47c | 85.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 80.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 22c | 71.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd4…e516backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 28c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…8449backed Yes | 29c | 68.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed No | 77c | 64.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…607cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4b36backed No | 71c | 62.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6a7ebacked No | 76c | 59.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 66c | 55.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 26c | 54.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 27c | 51.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 49.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac95…4f24backed No | 65c | 46.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 29c | 44.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…7fc6backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 25c | 41.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78b7…ef35backed No | 75c | 41.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.