Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa72b22f3fd5c31d7cad384be84a2ff3bc30730fb79231e74521737cb4b689b2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75a9…fb4dbacked No | 36c | 6,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8c…a355backed Yes | 64c | 6,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…3cfebacked No | 32c | 3,100$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c3…625abacked Yes | 68c | 3,100$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cf…7bfabacked Yes | 68c | 3,020$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fd…057dbacked Yes | 68c | 2,999$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 24c | 1,806$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.16 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 2c | 1,700$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 8c | 1,665$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.04 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 9c | 1,582$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 63c | 1,577$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.78 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 31c | 1,357$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.24 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc86…9f15backed No | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…4b61backed No | 11c | 1,025$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…f622backed No | 20c | 961.38$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.1 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked No | 58c | 893.8$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b4…a4bebacked No | 30c | 819.46$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 750$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…fee0backed No | 29c | 737.85$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 66c | 721.53$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.76 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 16c | 685.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…36dfbacked Yes | 52c | 649.99$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 569.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 15c | 549.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 462.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 442.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…0da7backed No | 47c | 424.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…c611backed No | 28c | 422.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 421.22$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 70c | 420.9$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed No | 22c | 382.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed No | 19c | 322.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 298.92$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 30c | 289.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 260$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed No | 18c | 250$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 12c | 235.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 18c | 221.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed No | 14c | 200.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae5a…798bbacked No | 30c | 192.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…eaa1backed No | 56c | 177$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…79efbacked No | 38c | 176.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf19e…0466backed No | 8c | 165.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…1212backed No | 26c | 165.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed No | 64c | 157.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…f284backed No | 39c | 152.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f3…6062backed Yes | 70c | 143.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4106backed No | 32c | 142.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 69c | 141.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 36c | 139.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed No | 14c | 133.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…9d59backed No | 31c | 128.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…5aa6backed No | 41c | 123.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 57c | 120.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 69c | 120.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Yes | 41c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 18c | 117.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 20c | 116.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…8d46backed Yes | 41c | 116$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 63c | 110.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…552ebacked Yes | 45c | 110.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed No | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…409fbacked No | 26c | 99.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…21dabacked Yes | 67c | 97.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked Yes | 80c | 96.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…c024backed No | 24c | 96.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 15c | 94.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ba…3605backed Yes | 77c | 91.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa545…7e73backed Yes | 71c | 88.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…e696backed No | 53c | 87.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…b224backed No | 23c | 87.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ea…209bbacked No | 40c | 84.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…8b4abacked Yes | 77c | 83.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed No | 52c | 80.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…3a18backed No | 22c | 77.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff8a…83d0backed No | 26c | 75.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 64c | 69.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…75a4backed Yes | 46c | 69.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…5891backed No | 45c | 65.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…8322backed Yes | 77c | 64.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed No | 39c | 64.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…6b0ebacked No | 24c | 63.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 29c | 63.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…3803backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…7ae6backed Yes | 75c | 59.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…3ab0backed Yes | 61c | 57.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…e8d4backed No | 27c | 56.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4672…954bbacked No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.