Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37826cd43d3924246cb2818c0a40183de9ee9193571c78239c530e0641c72135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 9c | 1,596$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 1,181$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed No | 79c | 1,143$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 998.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed Yes | 20c | 988$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 80c | 975$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 20c | 785$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 15c | 765.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed No | 80c | 640$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 80c | 603$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 21c | 590$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 20c | 509$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 19c | 508$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 449.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 444.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 6c | 427.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked No | 80c | 425$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked Yes | 12c | 416.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked Yes | 21c | 408$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 19c | 384$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 361.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 80c | 360$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 19c | 347$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 20c | 322$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 20c | 318$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 19c | 314$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 11c | 296.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 21c | 290$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 79c | 290$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 20c | 277$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 19c | 256$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 80c | 232$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 15c | 195.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 10c | 195.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 12c | 194.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 13c | 193.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 20c | 191$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 20c | 189$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 23c | 176.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 172.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 19c | 156.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 8c | 150.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 77c | 146.92$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked Yes | 21c | 145$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 141.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 141.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 10c | 122.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 19c | 114.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 15c | 100.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 80c | 98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3863…ae6abacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…97bfbacked No | 72c | 48.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 22c | 46.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.