TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa0c0…c4c9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
140
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Stocks, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 54 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.03
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.69
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.64
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$984Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$346.83
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$121
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$106.38
Will The Girl Who Cried Pearls win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$538.08
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$56.24
Will Jean Smart win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+127.3%+$180.32
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$171.93
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+47.1%+$5.76
Will Sydney Sweeney be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.72
Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$65.52
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$92.3
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$437Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$130.41
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+36.6%+$98.54
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+108.3%+$201.76
Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+58.7%+$13.69
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$976Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$976.44
Will "Golden - KPop Demon Hunters" win Best Original Song - Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$102.68
Will Good Hang with Amy Poehler win Best Podcast at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+42.9%+$54.6
Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+28.2%+$154
Will Owen Cooper (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$119.6
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$53.48
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$396.23
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$418Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$196.48
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.75
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$49.44
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.74
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.1
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.8
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$14.56
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.28
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$217.98
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+155.8%+$320.94
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$280.9
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.55
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$41.37
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$66.9
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+49.3%+$91.41
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+35.1%+$48.36
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$59.92
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$69.58
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$377Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+118.8%+$448
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.06
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.8
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.6
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$165.75
Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$592Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+38.9%+$230.16
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+212.5%+$339.32
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$410Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+112.8%+$462.16
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+270.4%+$273.02
Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$478Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$280.83
Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.91
Will Israel strike Iraq by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.23
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$134.64
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$44.08
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$123.9
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.2
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$187.92
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$117.11
All 18 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.4%+$205.66
Will Starmer say "War" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.38
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+706.5%+$487.93
Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.68
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$81.62
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$30.24
Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+26.6%+$25.2
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$636Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+25%+$159
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win less than 12% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$71.46
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+112.8%+$138.33
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$31.8
Will Daniel Băluță get between 30% and 35% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$15.04
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$72.67
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$219.19
All 14 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$114.38
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.58
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$117.45
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$349.44
Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$382.86
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.52
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+37%+$153.09
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$90.1
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$25.41
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+51.5%+$192.78
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+47.1%+$87.04
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$21.42
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+182.3%+$25.84
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.08
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$468Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$164.58
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$187.48
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.56
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.57
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$559.86
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$484.88
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$73.78
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60.16
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+104.1%+$144.33
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$138.18
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20.27
All 12 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+241.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.58
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5)backed Al Hilal Saudi Club · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+35%+$76.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+42.9%+$174.6
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$250.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+426.3%+$144.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+156.4%+$34.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Partizan vs. BC Dubaibacked Partizan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$102.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+92.7%+$44.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Choke" or "Choked" during Strickland vs. Hernandez?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+72.4%+$77.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+61.3%+$66.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Howard Lutnick be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$366Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$97.23
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.