Weather · resolved market
Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a0c82e6702917252f0363f817ec895d7bbd947244d9ee13007ae410f9ae21ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 71c | 5,356$3,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.26 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 31c | 3,874$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 59c | 2,654$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes | 42c | 1,669$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed Yes | 41c | 1,348$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed Yes | 41c | 1,301$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 46c | 1,121$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 54c | 709$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 42c | 676$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 58c | 676$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 41c | 634$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked No | 59c | 634$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 58c | 591$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked No | 58c | 547$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed No | 58c | 531$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 482$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed No | 54c | 412$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 41c | 390$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 61c | 368.95$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed No | 59c | 366$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 59c | 328$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 47c | 294$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 53c | 294$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.84 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…fb18backed Yes | 47c | 246.7$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 65c | 196.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked No | 59c | 177$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed Yes | 41c | 108$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed No | 59c | 103$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 40c | 72.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…384bbacked Yes | 70c | 63.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed No | 34c | 60.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8b…4c72backed No | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…f22fbacked Yes | 65c | 48.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 36c | 38.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 29c | 35.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 34.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?this page
- Will April 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?No won
- Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?No won
- Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.