Weather · resolved market
Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3442757e93387daf6e0da666e56794e3b24804ca44ecdc2fcc9da5d3f3766c72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,952$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 30c | 1,617$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 25c | 1,580$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,141$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 70c | 1,086$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.8 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed Yes | 33c | 1,083$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…fe71backed Yes | 24c | 1,032$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 24c | 1,003$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked No | 74c | 945$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed No | 67c | 933$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…08f7backed No | 67c | 871$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed No | 76c | 810$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 76c | 761$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc09e…6946backed Yes | 3c | 736.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed Yes | 26c | 727$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 72c | 660$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 26c | 630$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 73c | 592$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 27c | 592$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 70c | 531$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed Yes | 28c | 493$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked No | 76c | 464$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…9184backed No | 67c | 420$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked No | 74c | 412$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 72c | 259$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 28c | 259$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 210.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 184.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 19c | 175$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 19c | 169$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 28c | 167$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 77c | 97.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 92.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 22c | 57.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 30c | 38.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?this page
- Will April 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?No won
- Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?Yes won
- Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.