TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xccf8…ded2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.24
Will GERB-SDS win between 55-59 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$334.56
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$100.52
Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+33.3%+$54.5
Will Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$111.21
Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$418.95
Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$285.65
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$58.48
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?-fkEWbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+37%+$49.41
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+69.5%+$42.64
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid+46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.34
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$13
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$695Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$694.96
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$861Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$861.32
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$87.64
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.48
Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$60.27
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$74.1
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+809.1%+$685.3
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.66
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.46
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$471Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$470.88
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.76
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.71
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$233.12
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+163.2%+$173.6
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$29.28
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+108.3%+$87.36
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.64
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$20.4
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$33.66
Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5.75
Will Gwyneth Paltrow be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.34
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$40.5
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$17.15
All 7 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+242.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+73%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$453Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+112.8%+$510.92
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+33.3%+$142
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+108.3%+$76.96
Will Myles Garrett break the NFL sack record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+25%+$40.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$100.45
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+58.7%+$130.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)backed Evansville Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$82.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$263.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$303.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$308.88
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.