Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during NYC rally?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57364394b73a49d20d41e92285b87c8d304be9404ea812affbf4900da0c23e87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 43c | 1,820$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 57c | 1,196$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 57c | 624$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked No | 56c | 613$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 44c | 613$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…0c95backed Yes | 50c | 198.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 57c | 170$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 48c | 62.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…6dc4backed No | 64c | 58.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked Yes | 55c | 52.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 42c | 40.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Yes | 65c | 38.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.49per pick | 63cpaid | -78%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…c96ebacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 55c | 34.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 45c | 33.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes | 60c | 28.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…0e49backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during NYC rally?this page
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Affordability" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Billionaire" 10+ times during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Billionaire" 5+ times during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Bipartisan" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Climate" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Coffee" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Election" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Healthcare" or "Health care" 6+ times during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Iran" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Israel" or "Israeli" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Kathy" or "Hochul" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Maduro" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "One Percent" 2+ times during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Republican" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Twitch" or "Facebook" during NYC rally?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.