TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4143…d67d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
391
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Earnings at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT21220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 212 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.58
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$69
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.85
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.6
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$77
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+131.5%+$113.6
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$27.84
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.57
Showing 25 of 212 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT4129.3%12 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-46.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Earnings — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dell say "PowerEdge" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$47.16
Will ON Semiconductor say "Meta" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Google say "Wiz" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Google say "Search Advertising" or "Search Ad" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+113.3%+$106.07
Will PayPal say "Regulation" or "Regulator" or "Regulatory" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$17.43
Will PayPal say "E-Commerce" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+54.9%+$73.54
Will Johnson & Johnson say "Trufill" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Will Nike say "Stranger Thing" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$12.54
Will FedEx say "De Minimis" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+63.9%+$13.45
Will Adobe say "Qualcomm" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$11.6
Will Adobe say "Google Cloud" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$49
Will Chewy say "Automation" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+75.4%+$104.49
Will Snowflake say "Hiring" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+41.1%+$30.6
Will Dell say "Dividend" 3+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$19.28
Will Dell say "Zoho" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$51.08
Will Walmart say "Brick and Mortar" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Walmart say "SNAP" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+68%+$40.48
Will Walmart say "Automotive" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+75.4%+$12.9
Will Walmart say "Automation" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+29.9%+$4.6
Will NVIDIA say "Humanoid" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$56.95
Will NVIDIA say "Domestic" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$24.99
Will NVIDIA say "Arizona" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$28.22
Will NVIDIA say "Taiwan" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$14.04
Will Disney say "YouTube TV" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+53.8%+$14
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT2412.5%3 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+224.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.36
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.7
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.49
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+95.9%+$146.85
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.85
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.04
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.23
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.62
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.52
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.96
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+7,122.3%+$12,819.56
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.33
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.05
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.09
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+273.8%+$29.3
All 24 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+214.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Starmer say "War" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.12
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+81.8%+$9
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$10.89
Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: D66 vs VVDbacked D66 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+4,900%+$595.35
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$32.9
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$45.27
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$23.87
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$24.8
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$80.5
Will the Christian Union win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$11.8
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$16.84
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$110.48
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$11.7
Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.46
All 17 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "King" or "Queen" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will "Open Source" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will "AI" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$32.14
Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during statement on April 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$323.99
Will Melania say "First Lady" during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Melania say "Be Best" during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will Melania say "Love" during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$67.03
Tech Release Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$27.2
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+89.4%+$9.44
Will Brian Armstrong say "Ethereum" 2+ times at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$57.49
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+26.6%+$21
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+525%+$127.6
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+164.6%+$18.66
All 16 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST1435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$88
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$24.8
Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$31.22
Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$12.41
Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$43
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+41.6%+$29.4
Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+1,328.6%+$279
Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+163.2%+$62
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+200.1%+$23
Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
All 14 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$166
Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
Will "The Drama" score at least 77 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$116
Will "Hoppers" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$23.22
Will The Pitt win Best Ensemble in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$56
Will Severance be nominated for Best Ensemble in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$65.89
Will The Pitt be nominated for Best Ensemble in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Adolescence win Best Limited Series at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+81.8%+$30
Will "Wicked: For Good" score at least 86 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$33.1
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+64.3%+$19.58
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" during NYC rally?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$69
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Israel" or "Israeli" during NYC rally?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$76
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during NYC rally?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" during NYC rally?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC rally?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.9
Will Zohran Mamdani win Staten Island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will anyone say "Public transport" 3+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.3
Will anyone say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.92
Will anyone say "Inflation" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.7
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+124%+$105.17
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$45.76
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$56.3
Will it Snow in Seattle this December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.66
Will October 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$17
2025 September third hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$16.79
2025 September hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10.17
2025 September second hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+123.6%+$43.22
Will Melissa become a category 5 hurricane?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+26.2%+$19.7
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Illegal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "ICE" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+233.3%+$70
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Dictator" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+92.3%+$47.99
Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$23.96
Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27.36
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$82.98
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$52.22
Will Maduro visit the White House in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+69.5%+$8.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick32cpaid+94.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump say "ICE" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+284.6%+$74
Will Trump say "Grocery" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+273.7%+$32.23
Will Mike Johnson vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+300%+$30
Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+150%+$18
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.04
Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.2
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.