TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,657,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,766,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,657,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c539,884$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,206.08362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c305,409$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.82160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes0c302,698$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.180%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c282,309$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.93219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick3cpaid-63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c241,633$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.63296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-86.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c237,408$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.82651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes0c206,230$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.69260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c201,500$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.7722927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c129,999$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2305111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x156b…baa0backed Yes0c100,298$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c87,851$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.2514315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d50…b166backed Yes0c87,554$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.83210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf464…6983backed Yes0c81,277$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb36b…7804backed Yes0c70,156$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4780%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb03…bf25backed Yes0c52,966$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes0c52,599$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+272%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c49,999$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c49,999$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed8d…606fbacked Yes0c30,789$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3797…efeabacked Yes0c30,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c24,025$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed Yes0c21,200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6230%0 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f88…b10ebacked Yes1c20,459$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c19,340$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01f5…5cfbbacked Yes1c19,275$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a42…fab9backed Yes0c17,556$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.671010%1 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick3cpaid-51.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes0c15,600$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2300%0 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c15,100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa719…0f74backed Yes0c15,024$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.37110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e0…072abacked Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f8f…722bbacked Yes0c12,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41c8…d2fabacked Yes0c10,270$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c10,221$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes0c10,033$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0114…fbfabacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…991abacked Yes1c9,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45616.7%1 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick1cpaid+1,751.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5d3…da00backed Yes0c9,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes0c8,700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500b…17c5backed Yes0c8,400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8d…0002backed Yes0c8,400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f1…80f2backed Yes0c8,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+152.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3441…3283backed Yes0c7,700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1230%0 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eda…1c80backed Yes0c7,700$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e4…8f34backed Yes0c7,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a62…8b90backed Yes0c6,750$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…169bbacked Yes0c6,700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ddb…9ffabacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x649e…018ebacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec9b…15f0backed Yes0c6,347$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes1c6,257$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.262810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+174.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes0c6,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1127backed Yes0c5,900$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b205backed Yes0c5,450$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1463…ce78backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea4…dd30backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x317e…ddbdbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x449f…cf01backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c4,994$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+202.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf26…ef8dbacked Yes0c4,825$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x375f…21b6backed Yes0c4,825$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf913…d682backed Yes0c4,805$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d24…7c37backed Yes0c4,805$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb742…4263backed Yes0c4,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4565…cb4ebacked Yes0c4,393$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes0c4,262$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.092412.5%3 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+224.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9c7…8544backed Yes0c3,937$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe926…842abacked Yes0c3,890$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc314…118ebacked Yes0c3,860$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac23…ca4fbacked Yes0c3,860$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505d…04d4backed Yes0c3,850$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a2…8134backed Yes0c3,840$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc961…b544backed Yes0c3,822$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf9…740fbacked Yes0c3,757$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f45…e386backed Yes0c3,730$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcab5…93b1backed Yes0c3,730$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,683$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.494629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e2…7a5abacked Yes0c3,677$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf113…c3febacked Yes0c3,637$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf61a…615fbacked Yes0c3,620$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…ada9backed Yes0c3,564$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,281$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.02673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea0…cd32backed Yes0c3,019$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8b…4154backed Yes1c2,600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick1cpaid+2,677.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf59d…2736backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-56.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd42c…9b54backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8408…5dcabacked Yes1c2,417$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+216.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes0c2,258$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.75323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c2,109$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.621074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c2,098$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.78504%2 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes1c1,800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44526.7%12 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+191.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes1c1,545$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebcd…88bebacked Yes1c1,300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c74…86bfbacked Yes1c1,200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe072…a9bcbacked Yes2c669.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.