TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,032,301
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,538,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,032,301 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c943,382$3,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,914.1714315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Yes1c245,521$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.8650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeac…0216backed Yes1c127,697$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.6670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b46…1263backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c70,108$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.018122.2%18 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+75%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes1c69,999$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.993212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+255.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x786a…94a7backed Yes1c50,284$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.48195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+247.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick15cpaid-92.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c40,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes1c37,283$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.887416.2%12 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+231.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes0c36,031$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.127425.7%19 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c29,000$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.46651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d50…b166backed Yes1c25,582$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.49210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c24,969$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.88561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed Yes0c24,227$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes1c22,167$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8f…722bbacked Yes0c20,119$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.41100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes1c16,863$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7716334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes1c16,022$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.65323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eea…cf02backed Yes1c16,013$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes1c12,983$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.91462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+272%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ae…4609backed Yes0c11,835$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b58…eb2bbacked Yes0c11,321$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.28812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-82.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbeda…d080backed Yes0c11,268$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.07825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes1c11,230$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.38260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes1c10,673$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.36160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5815…9bf2backed Yes1c8,669$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8541…acf6backed Yes1c8,651$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x517b…fe53backed Yes0c8,633$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick1cpaid+1,766.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a2…169bbacked Yes1c8,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa1…7c65backed Yes0c7,500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x147b…03bcbacked Yes1c7,250$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes1c7,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x374a…c231backed Yes1c6,743$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8290%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c6,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c6,286$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.22695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes1c6,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes0c5,910$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.55263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+451.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes1c5,506$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c5,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea2…ad65backed Yes0c5,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9629…b148backed Yes1c5,390$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9390%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55fc…a2fdbacked Yes1c5,091$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b205backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3797…efeabacked Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x833d…57c2backed Yes1c4,950$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a62…8b90backed Yes1c4,900$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c4,574$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4522927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f1…80f2backed Yes1c4,167$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+152.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5256…304cbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1127backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ce…e23bbacked Yes0c3,790$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd62…50e5backed Yes1c3,600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.031729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+449%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,599$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.54673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8581…89b0backed Yes1c3,290$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes1c3,231$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.114330.2%13 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+173.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7566…12c8backed Yes1c3,212$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c6e…e326backed Yes1c3,200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf24…7d4abacked Yes3c3,174$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2284…e3b8backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f8d…0002backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd815…a05abacked Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500b…17c5backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c2,904$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.59533.8%2 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ecd…64aebacked Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick1cpaid+1,900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c2,800$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Yes1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210%0 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…4f14backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-63.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x075c…5541backed Yes1c2,333$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes1c2,246$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.93333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes1c2,093$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56300%0 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6177…12e6backed Yes1c2,015$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea4…dd30backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.515119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ddb…9ffabacked Yes1c1,806$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde8f…8fd8backed Yes1c1,720$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3280%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a2c…15c4backed Yes1c1,589$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes4c1,524$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.776253.2%33 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a40…e7f0backed Yes1c1,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecc…6b37backed Yes1c1,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+250.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes1c1,337$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.054012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes3c1,250$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.94504%2 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes3c1,126$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.145721.1%12 W · 45 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1620…f529backed Yes1c1,114$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.036028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c1,011$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23250%0 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes3c999.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+33.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c971.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.664629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6baf…3766backed Yes3c771.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes4c626.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.472951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9419…4201backed Yes2c623.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+4.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e59…aa0dbacked Yes4c454.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf385…8f03backed Yes22c443.28$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.