TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,341,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,426,120

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,341,724 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c884,621$3,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,247.12160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c632,107$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.3914315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c236,997$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.18296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-86.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c176,993$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.98362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c151,631$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0922927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6421backed Yes0c150,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c144,980$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.94651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb36b…7804backed Yes0c119,236$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4780%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes0c109,997$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.99462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+272%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes0c98,864$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.66260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c96,989$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.98170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d50…b166backed Yes0c84,460$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.5210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c79,999$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8d0…908bbacked Yes1c58,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa1…7c65backed Yes0c55,934$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdb…d762backed Yes0c36,509$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.06100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a42…fab9backed Yes0c32,637$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.791010%1 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick3cpaid-51.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3797…efeabacked Yes0c30,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f88…b10ebacked Yes1c19,949$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa719…0f74backed Yes0c19,527$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.58110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c3…9089backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed Yes0c17,652$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.09230%0 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x649e…018ebacked Yes0c13,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8943…3be1backed Yes0c13,163$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.831612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+414.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e0…072abacked Yes0c12,200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ae…c959backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10254%1 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-91.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5256…304cbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b205backed Yes0c10,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes0c9,832$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.09300%0 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes0c9,750$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c9,750$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500b…17c5backed Yes0c9,650$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…169bbacked Yes0c9,450$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a62…8b90backed Yes0c8,950$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1127backed Yes0c8,400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f1…80f2backed Yes0c8,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+152.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes1c8,319$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.392810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+174.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes0c8,250$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe30d…9362backed Yes0c8,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eda…1c80backed Yes0c7,950$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ddb…9ffabacked Yes0c7,663$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.54214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8d…0002backed Yes0c6,700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…51c8backed Yes0c6,071$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f14…ec62backed Yes0c5,600$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes0c5,544$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3441…3283backed Yes0c5,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1230%0 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x449f…cf01backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6402…a05bbacked Yes0c4,250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4e…b076backed Yes0c3,977$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad6…6114backed Yes0c3,917$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ce…9292backed Yes0c3,900$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b1…369abacked Yes0c3,880$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…8805backed Yes0c3,817$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d22…2876backed Yes0c3,777$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992a…4387backed Yes0c3,773$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b0…bcdebacked Yes0c3,763$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b77…b745backed Yes0c3,763$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf61a…615fbacked Yes0c3,757$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e2…7a5abacked Yes0c3,660$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa74…3067backed Yes0c3,658$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d13…30d3backed Yes0c3,643$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a1a…9352backed Yes0c3,637$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes0c3,622$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.85533.8%2 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c42…c18cbacked Yes0c3,610$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e2…c694backed Yes0c3,590$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67d…aac3backed Yes0c3,547$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0a…d6a6backed Yes0c3,510$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c8f…c93abacked Yes0c3,467$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…e1adbacked Yes0c3,427$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,245$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6323…2851backed Yes1c3,040$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca35…2440backed Yes1c2,976$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c2,653$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.286520%13 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…fa11backed Yes1c2,595$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc406…ba02backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d9b…9227backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a10…63d3backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes1c2,450$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.53333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c2,093$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5504%2 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c2,072$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ecd…64aebacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick1cpaid+1,900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a1c…fc88backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ab…08f3backed Yes2c1,487$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7460…9ecabacked Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda00…64e3backed Yes1c1,064$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes1c987.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes1c769.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3119939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x835b…38c9backed Yes2c670$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.