TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0ddb…9ffa

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: UFC, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 51 out of 100; worst Commodities at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Musiclast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.04
Will France win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.94
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.12
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.91
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.46
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.88
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.44
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.93
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.99
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.6
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.1
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.73
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.92
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+3,536.3%+$4,406.94
Will Romania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.31
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.26
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.42
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.54
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.79
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,883Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,883
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$656Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+284.6%+$1,867.08
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+227.1%+$1,226.43
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$63
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$56
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-65.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$201
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$170.96
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$58
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Islam Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$8.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.