Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1cce43b5fded07d49b457f473f49d921db7053a9cd98dcfd5c3271a53e6713f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,276,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,936,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,276,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,060 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88f0…d597backed Yes | 10c | 84,382$8,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,737.52 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed No | 77c | 77,677$59,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,938.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 19c | 49,988$9,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,497.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…3c94backed Yes | 14c | 49,955$6,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,917.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2857…c891backed Yes | 63c | 47,230$29,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,963.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +79%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…4471backed No | 75c | 37,500$28,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,291.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…5199backed Yes | 15c | 33,564$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 15c | 30,801$4,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,658 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 15c | 26,571$4,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,021.7 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 12c | 25,000$2,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,875 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 24c | 24,879$5,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,984.08 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 23,172$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.54 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…39dbbacked Yes | 15c | 21,865$3,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,384.85 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 20,666$3,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,071.42 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe264…1923backed Yes | 12c | 20,349$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,443.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.01 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 12c | 19,573$2,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,321.82 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 16c | 18,421$3,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,030 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…cecebacked Yes | 15c | 18,192$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 17,703$3,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,729.25 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…9680backed Yes | 7c | 16,088$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…c139backed Yes | 15c | 16,014$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.28 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…128ebacked No | 78c | 15,280$11,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,293.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,776$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.84 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006b…425cbacked Yes | 27c | 14,761$3,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,998.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 15c | 14,200$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.22 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b0…e2c1backed Yes | 3c | 13,827$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 14c | 13,616$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.41 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd1…0237backed Yes | 24c | 13,415$3,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,278.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 22c | 13,280$2,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950.63 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 13,184$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,560.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 12,955$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.2 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…eeb4backed Yes | 35c | 11,042$3,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,894.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 10c | 10,199$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 75c | 10,000$7,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed Yes | 13c | 9,999$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.87 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 9c | 9,302$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.16 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 9,302$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,876.98 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3c…2ef9backed Yes | 28c | 8,817$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…8f85backed Yes | 14c | 7,860$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…fc93backed Yes | 18c | 7,842$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 77c | 7,810$6,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.02 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b53…92c5backed Yes | 26c | 7,807$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b04…ae4dbacked Yes | 13c | 7,723$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…2a0dbacked Yes | 13c | 7,617$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.61 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed No | 64c | 7,608$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,707.77 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 20c | 7,495$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 11c | 7,471$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.48 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 77c | 7,417$5,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.2 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f52…5ed9backed Yes | 22c | 7,199$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 13c | 7,186$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.75 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…1b7dbacked Yes | 14c | 7,093$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 16c | 6,939$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.81 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed No | 78c | 6,933$5,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.47 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,819$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b5…9102backed Yes | 18c | 6,799$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…8c37backed Yes | 15c | 6,738$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.45 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9606backed No | 77c | 6,726$5,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.36 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 3c | 6,700$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.55 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 16c | 6,280$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…ed3bbacked Yes | 16c | 6,266$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 77c | 6,200$4,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8576…87c2backed Yes | 6c | 6,192$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 4c | 6,063$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.17 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c8…5ffebacked Yes | 18c | 5,774$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…2aa6backed Yes | 6c | 5,749$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 14c | 5,641$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.77 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 60c | 5,509$3,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,179.41 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 14c | 5,481$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.14 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc8…fc00backed Yes | 1c | 5,442$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 20c | 5,340$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.63 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…e9f6backed Yes | 19c | 5,334$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 14c | 5,228$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.48 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea3…7ff8backed Yes | 49c | 5,183$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,560.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 74c | 5,095$3,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.97 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 11c | 5,089$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.63 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked Yes | 11c | 4,776$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 14c | 4,645$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.52 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…07a4backed Yes | 20c | 4,642$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…4e68backed Yes | 11c | 4,597$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…3ae9backed Yes | 14c | 4,591$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.97 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 15c | 4,444$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.6 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…3339backed Yes | 11c | 4,408$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4229backed Yes | 39c | 4,397$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…3160backed Yes | 16c | 4,306$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…10b1backed Yes | 25c | 4,306$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 21c | 4,306$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,401.74 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 15c | 4,291$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.63 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf6…fecebacked Yes | 20c | 4,275$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 19c | 4,227$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.34 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…5dffbacked Yes | 28c | 4,226$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 13c | 4,200$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…776fbacked Yes | 16c | 4,168$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,107$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.75 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed Yes | 8c | 3,978$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed Yes | 11c | 3,928$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.03 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 12c | 3,906$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.93 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 16c | 3,871$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.