TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x75da…fc93

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 58 out of 100; worst NHL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST2259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 143.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. DePaul Blue Demonsbacked DePaul Blue Demons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+172%+$473.24
Spread: Kent State Golden Flashes (-5.5)backed Toledo Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+92.6%+$132.43
Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-4.5)backed South Alabama Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+92.3%+$203.08
Spread: William & Mary Tribe (-13.5)backed North Carolina A&T Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+100%+$100
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-17.5)backed Gonzaga Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+104.1%+$207.96
San Diego Toreros vs. Seattle Redhawks: O/U 147.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+100%+$133
Spread: Seattle Redhawks (-9.5)backed San Diego Toreros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$134.58
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. South Alabama Jaguarsbacked South Alabama Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+128%+$128
Spread: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (-2.5)backed Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Eastern Illinois Panthers vs. Little Rock Trojans: O/U 133.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$220
Charleston Cougars vs. Towson Tigers: O/U 142.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+127.3%+$142.55
Spread: Wright State Raiders (-5.5)backed Wright State Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+112.8%+$112.77
Spread: Northern Kentucky Norse (-10.5)backed Detroit Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Binghamton Bearcats vs. Albany Great Danes: O/U 139.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+78.6%+$117.86
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Western Michigan Broncosbacked Western Michigan Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$214.19
Colorado State Rams vs. Fresno State Bulldogsbacked Fresno State Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+163.2%+$326.32
Spread: Norfolk State Spartans (-5.5)backed Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+100%+$200
Spread: Southeastern Louisiana Lions (-2.5)backed Southeastern Louisiana Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$267.36
Spread: South Carolina State Bulldogs (-1.5)backed Coppin State Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Spread: North Carolina Central Eagles (-2.5)backed North Carolina Central Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+88.7%+$15.27
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked TCU Horned Frogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$194.26
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Spread: Warriors (-10.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$352.88
Trail Blazers vs. Warriorsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Hawks vs. Lakersbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$210
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+100%+$456
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$52
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+100%+$245
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$178.32
Nets vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+69.5%+$205.44
Spread: Rockets (-14.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+88.7%+$224.48
Spread: Warriors (-7.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+92.3%+$221.54
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$90.9
Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+78.6%+$200.36
Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$310
Mavericks vs. Kingsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+222.6%+$662.42
All 15 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Senators vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$124.1
Stars vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+114.9%+$114.85
Red Wings vs. Bruinsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Islanders vs. Jetsbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Oilers vs. Predatorsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$171.76
Lightning vs. Penguinsbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+66.7%+$101.57
Capitals vs. Predatorsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$162.9
Blue Jackets vs. Utahbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+78.9%+$78.91
Bruins vs. Krakenbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$167.14
Blue Jackets vs. Sharksbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$233.99
All 10 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+50.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)backed Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+92.3%+$275.87
Miami vs. Indianabacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$210
Oregon vs. Indianabacked Oregon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$305.67
Miami vs. Ole Missbacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+61.3%+$273.78
Miami vs. Ohio Statebacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+300%+$525
All 5 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+156.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+53.8%+$312.38
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$177.12
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$280.52
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DR Congo win on 2026-01-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$287
Will Algeria vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+53.5%+$156.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+58.7%+$145.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$114.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$314.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$461Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$460.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$28.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.