TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,883,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,898,605

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,883,276 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 396 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2e7…be51backed Yes38c2,297,254$871,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871,245.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked No62c800,000$496,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No62c461,752$286,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175,465.749455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked No62c250,000$155,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,0001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No62c250,000$155,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,0004042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No60c126,953$76,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,519.311,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…9785backed Yes38c80,010$30,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,403.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked No62c75,000$46,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,5001163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No62c72,633$45,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,261.6116652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No65c49,720$32,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,400.8175142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No39c40,147$15,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,480.892,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed No64c38,591$24,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,039.072650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed No62c35,000$21,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,1502100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed No62c27,500$17,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,450580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes71c24,435$17,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,458.8616045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked No63c16,210$10,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,997.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No63c15,823$9,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,893.1178248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No62c13,405$8,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,093.983063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Yes31c13,070$4,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,051.796251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked No62c11,111$6,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,222.182365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No59c10,275$6,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,221.291,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed No62c10,000$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7602962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked No63c9,524$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,523.811353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x763f…81e9backed No66c9,162$6,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed No63c8,429$5,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,118.571040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked No62c8,000$4,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0401947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes35c8,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked No63c7,948$5,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,940.65757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No65c6,941$4,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.4633945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Yes31c6,452$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No63c6,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25023046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No64c5,806$3,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.063,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No63c5,470$3,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.9769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked No64c5,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80010445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked No65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7505152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed No62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes34c4,550$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.497423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No63c4,541$2,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.274658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed No63c4,226$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.551764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed Yes34c4,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3804252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Yes35c3,339$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.129831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed No66c3,333$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.332290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick70cpaid+29.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No62c3,200$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.214157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked No62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1407057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked No62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1402661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed No62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1406459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1403721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+73.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No67c2,500$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ef…dbeebacked Yes33c2,366$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed Yes35c2,318$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.186126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes36c2,222$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9214447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No40c2,201$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.8133737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes30c2,168$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.444856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed No11c2,069$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.332948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76011644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked No62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.981250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes34c1,908$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.665457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No63c1,750$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.534144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes37c1,614$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.1814756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked No62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ba…e793backed No77c1,605$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.664360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked No68c1,593$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.59683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed No67c1,500$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.52766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x544e…2d9fbacked No62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5702100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No63c1,270$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.19459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed No62c1,252$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.113948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No28c1,208$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.884526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No62c1,200$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.3255058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked Yes21c1,075$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.284119.5%8 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed No45c1,066$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5872250%11 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes34c1,010$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.724050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed No45c1,006$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.166768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dd6…8577backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed No63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3701457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No76c983.31$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.161662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+54.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x340d…1335backed Yes20c980.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes36c935.73$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.865052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes47c875.04$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.062231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d83…27afbacked No64c800$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2882100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked No62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3048764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked No63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed No63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.651656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No66c782.62$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.097967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed No66c764$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.7610361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92d8…9762backed Yes40c757.45$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.984447.7%21 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+260.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc909…1ab1backed No65c750$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed Yes31c712.03$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2241553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e69…200ebacked Yes38c698.21$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.041030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked No49c680.95$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.482536%9 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6755…d3cfbacked Yes72c653.01$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes35c650$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.57639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe161…a10bbacked No61c600$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x212b…92c3backed No67c600$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No68c541.44$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.2644655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked No63c540$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.85052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No39c537.11$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.148946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No63c533$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.2117251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.