TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$673,081
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$734,850

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $673,081 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 521 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2048…f572backed No48c30,205$14,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,757.319046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes8c27,894$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.9510521.9%23 W · 82 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-44.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb54b…32c6backed Yes50c23,616$11,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,917.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f3…080fbacked Yes14c22,782$3,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,136.15120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc82f…460dbacked Yes60c20,786$12,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,555.53933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed No33c20,286$6,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,599.75058%29 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3057…7a96backed No50c15,774$7,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,893.625937.3%22 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f0…d9cfbacked No75c14,608$10,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,689.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6276…2dd9backed No77c13,645$10,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,133.231369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd337…ca8fbacked Yes46c13,619$6,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,240.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ba…7b2fbacked Yes22c10,174$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No69c8,500$5,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,629.987240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes25c7,135$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.72810.7%3 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No41c6,957$2,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,091.4117859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0f5b…a4abbacked Yes15c6,506$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No71c6,502$4,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.097759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72a1…1616backed Yes60c6,354$3,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,840.6950%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14a3…f60ebacked Yes68c5,624$3,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,824.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a59…7d22backed Yes20c5,473$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9167…8c91backed No75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2502100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf1f…5317backed Yes69c5,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4501833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-46.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b2c…5341backed Yes25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ea…3f04backed No42c4,723$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,722.813100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+158.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x841f…806bbacked Yes23c4,690$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0563636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes55c4,645$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.9960%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd30…b342backed Yes2c4,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Yes53c4,415$2,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,346.943857.9%22 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed43…ce85backed Yes28c4,370$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed Yes62c4,332$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,684.855135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd328…973dbacked No60c4,213$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,096$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.67663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked No75c4,034$3,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.891330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick15cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccd4…df61backed Yes21c4,025$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes7c3,900$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.026836.8%25 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x822e…5febbacked No77c3,833$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.736344.4%28 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc525…396fbacked No78c3,713$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.751050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No70c3,500$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04010462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed Yes65c3,427$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,231.13129%9 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7aca…7432backed Yes22c3,256$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+47.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa83…537bbacked Yes26c3,253$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.673060%18 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4930…82abbacked Yes15c3,047$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.93828.9%11 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b45…bc22backed Yes25c2,973$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7531030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes7c2,861$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.396314.3%9 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5e…1773backed No79c2,841$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.493135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0bca…12c5backed No74c2,698$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed No76c2,630$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.956350.8%32 W · 31 L+12.0wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+108.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed No60c2,516$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.866654.5%36 W · 30 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a8d…ba3cbacked Yes18c2,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2f62backed No47c2,491$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick31cpaid+215.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0bb7…dad6backed No59c2,475$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.14729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x932f…3d67backed No54c2,448$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.54757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdba1…17adbacked No41c2,445$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.711450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No61c2,438$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.769747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes10c2,301$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.77147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda2b…c006backed Yes74c2,289$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.741338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed No70c2,140$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.772157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes57c2,139$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.13933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c2,100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.51424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No41c2,062$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.2812840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa772…b445backed No44c2,045$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.415945.8%27 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No76c2,040$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.1720551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No55c2,024$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.647545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c77…f1d6backed Yes2c2,023$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+42.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked No41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1801258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7217…fdbdbacked Yes21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed No60c1,991$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.511758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe58f…b1adbacked Yes45c1,971$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c1,908$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.763283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x988e…5558backed No75c1,870$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.811421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No69c1,864$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.6415362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x08ea…0751backed Yes23c1,816$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4113324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6fcd…8dd0backed Yes8c1,812$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a2…b175backed No59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.92560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+48%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1e…8d24backed Yes47c1,634$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.491471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a47…740bbacked No60c1,626$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6572853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff3…8c08backed Yes62c1,600$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+130.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x022a…751cbacked No49c1,600$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8123100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+174%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…be6cbacked No48c1,580$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.645832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9f9…c5e8backed No35c1,579$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.986063.3%38 W · 22 L+17.9wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+108.3%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x73a5…f00abacked Yes38c1,527$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-75.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6cc…dbdfbacked Yes70c1,521$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.991060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b1…c7efbacked No78c1,513$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.061450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdef0…3d06backed Yes63c1,491$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.552420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-67.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes6c1,490$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.161343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked No78c1,476$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf561…ba3bbacked Yes14c1,461$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.711241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe06f…6981backed No67c1,450$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.381513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-71.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x677f…5e11backed Yes36c1,444$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.11241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75da…fc93backed No43c1,433$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.694100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+156.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes6c1,414$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.741243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes6c1,400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.991234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed No76c1,395$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.924050%20 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+37.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed No76c1,350$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.583930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc93…8b29backed Yes37c1,346$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f3…e279backed No48c1,300$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6702740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6641…99f9backed Yes1c1,300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f7…86d5backed Yes56c1,292$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.641233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-41.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes24c1,270$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.514816.7%8 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,268$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.812333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No72c1,256$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.9917948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.