TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$439,619
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$438,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $439,619 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8eb2…fea3backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e8…e169backed No2c11,497$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x841f…806bbacked Yes45c9,550$4,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,263.573636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca53…d319backed Yes74c9,073$6,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked No18c7,489$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c42…deb7backed No20c7,343$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.642429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x996c…1c8cbacked No29c7,095$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,085.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes48c6,874$3,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,565.0119543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f06…39c7backed No8c6,659$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.711926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20cd…5634backed Yes70c6,460$4,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.191546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No15c5,839$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.1315362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed No18c5,659$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.068854.5%48 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef94…f8c4backed No40c5,477$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.923756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No25c5,129$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.651225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked Yes67c4,848$3,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.228728.7%25 W · 62 L-14.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed No11c4,053$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.242532%8 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick23cpaid-9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bb7…dad6backed No28c3,551$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.714729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…256abacked No2c3,401$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.875614.3%8 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77e4…d18fbacked No11c3,166$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.225736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed No10c3,139$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.61040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79f8…44f1backed No40c3,008$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed Yes80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6002100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No1c3,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2315941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c73…44f4backed No24c2,903$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.811030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9de1…160ebacked No35c2,867$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd946…ccf7backed No1c2,778$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9702…1042backed No70c2,745$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed No8c2,666$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.18742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc3…8548backed No14c2,590$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.43330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc59a…5bbfbacked Yes56c2,545$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.751361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes52c2,469$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.4710462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed No13c2,446$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.1613023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No10c2,400$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.817759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No11c2,360$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.812810.7%3 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked No7c2,333$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.63145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes60c2,250$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.7510763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed No18c2,182$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006350.8%32 W · 31 L+12.0wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+108.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No1c2,127$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.46911.6%8 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-61.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x79d4…6d24backed Yes62c2,063$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.442958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5c…a5debacked Yes19c2,009$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.762334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1161…729abacked No4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802548%12 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed No30c1,913$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.944050%20 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+37.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c1,862$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.0635712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed No1c1,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed No80c1,635$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.14366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed Yes79c1,610$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.7420551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2907…9c3fbacked Yes61c1,459$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…a3d6backed Yes25c1,453$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.64257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b28…e046backed No6c1,298$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No13c1,232$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.087663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e2e…8abfbacked No5c1,200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No10c1,128$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0914141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No45c1,117$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.585655.4%31 W · 25 L+13.4wins+0.24per pick31cpaid+86.6%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x006d…06f8backed No79c1,074$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.572634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-38.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No33c1,045$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.2117948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No14c1,030$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.12094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed No26c1,021$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.512528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6c1…51aabacked No20c1,019$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+59.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae5…910abacked No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd17…f596backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed No9c1,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9311225.9%29 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b55…14f2backed Yes20c1,000$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7991100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+397.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcae9…c13bbacked No11c999.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+89.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No6c999.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.53283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed No8c999.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes28c999.81$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.7610045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea5…3fdabacked Yes77c980.63$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.032944.8%13 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+61.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f50…0eafbacked No41c967$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fd…83b5backed No5c900$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes41c896.81$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.037234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes79c860.65$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.866836.8%25 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81b4…d205backed No12c823.28$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.77911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-83%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd179…74adbacked Yes24c813.59$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.591827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-43.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e9…1812backed Yes39c812.31$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.612748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e6…ea33backed Yes73c787.75$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.731947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed No52c773.15$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.991758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x322e…a2cebacked No5c761$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.05875%6 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68d7…1c0bbacked No48c751.04$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No15c719.11$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.26553.6%2 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick16cpaid-83.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No17c713.6$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.943495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b44…ec4ebacked Yes59c712.31$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.844100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No7c710.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9614732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2c…898abacked No5c705.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.261827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No6c702.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.711234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No6c700$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed Yes8c695.49$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.638327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No4c688.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8119336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbebf…4e07backed No13c660$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.187061.4%43 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf2e…3c35backed No16c644$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.01666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+107.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf213…f3a3backed No30c631.83$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.29560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No7c600$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.11343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed No9c600$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.46934.8%24 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d80…ee14backed No79c600$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+52.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed No15c600$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.75026%13 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No9c584.57$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.822333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c571.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.972442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed No21c544.42$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7213134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5c…718dbacked No12c540.46$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b5f…1d83backed No4c508.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.763619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.