Token Launches · resolved market
Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x439f25326d9099e200a3957ad4c9d19de5c1e34124ed42cb1759229c7e819749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f3…080fbacked Yes | 2c | 39,325$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb77…023ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,218$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1616backed Yes | 2c | 4,322$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,279$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,983$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,555$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,272$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes | 20c | 2,028$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,890$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,851$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…b166backed Yes | 1c | 1,845$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,840$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,660$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,419$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,377$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,225$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…dc0dbacked Yes | 2c | 945.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb4…6a58backed Yes | 4c | 871.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd946…ccf7backed Yes | 6c | 848.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb8…77d7backed Yes | 2c | 728.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 628.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf726…e4e8backed Yes | 5c | 556.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 47c | 497.13$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.22 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 444.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…e4a9backed Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…ee17backed Yes | 5c | 341.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -7.3wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 226.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 9c | 188$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4b77backed No | 78c | 128.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 17c | 125.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…1806backed Yes | 25c | 120.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 19c | 75.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860b…65f0backed No | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch?this page
- Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.