TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$813,158
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$886,494

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $813,158 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 900 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc82f…460dbacked Yes76c38,077$28,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,952933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes48c17,407$8,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,306.635448.1%26 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes15c17,302$2,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.5210521.9%23 W · 82 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-44.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed No15c16,748$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,314.635058%29 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x72a1…1616backed Yes65c15,396$10,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,012.8550%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbace…3429backed No69c13,604$9,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,283.642157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e5…0e18backed Yes33c12,176$4,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,001.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No39c12,126$4,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,437.457759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No45c11,891$5,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,548.9816247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed No50c11,689$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,838.722360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x1816…9dc8backed No76c11,489$8,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,757.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No74c10,365$7,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,662.47545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbb…2e36backed No52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8002100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+174.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6af1…6d4bbacked Yes48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No42c8,582$3,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,988.67240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb54b…32c6backed Yes63c8,360$5,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,236.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa772…b445backed No45c7,971$3,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,359.375945.8%27 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed No27c7,620$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,571.979046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes36c7,256$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.012810.7%3 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes17c6,714$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.236314.3%9 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed Yes50c6,703$3,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,356.34050%20 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+37.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c6,700$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No25c6,029$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,507.1212840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x20ff…4d98backed No68c5,845$4,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29d4…41fbbacked No45c5,843$2,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,216.952360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7217…fdbdbacked Yes45c5,834$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.2160%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed No41c5,780$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,433.75541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f9…c5e8backed No26c5,509$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,062.286063.3%38 W · 22 L+17.9wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+108.3%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xdf1f…5317backed Yes66c5,500$3,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6301833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-46.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1111…ca23backed No44c5,309$2,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,959.893256.3%18 W · 14 L+6.2wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+26.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No57c5,230$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.8810462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed No49c5,081$2,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,566.886654.5%36 W · 30 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef94…f8c4backed No70c5,000$3,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.23756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6276…2dd9backed No38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1001369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46eb…ba8cbacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b7…b36ebacked Yes53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes26c4,707$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.246836.8%25 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2229…6bf8backed No75c4,613$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.853863.2%24 W · 14 L+10.5wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+90.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xc4ba…7b2fbacked Yes50c4,604$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No41c4,501$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,675.7414732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No44c4,409$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,475.6214141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc525…396fbacked No42c4,317$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,504.811050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked No45c4,226$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.072466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8138…3c88backed No70c4,000$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.31050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5c…bb60backed No48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.992250%11 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+148.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe60e…3f04backed No72c3,714$2,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.041540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes14c3,560$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.4147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes65c3,519$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2953933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No60c3,510$2,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.193262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed No40c3,315$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.695330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac1…0389backed No77c3,276$2,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.511861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a2…b175backed No32c3,160$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.05560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+48%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b4f…a442backed Yes30c3,151$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9502334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked No73c3,131$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.3314335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x841f…806bbacked Yes56c3,099$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.893636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19b8…7fcbbacked No33c3,056$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34f…b81abacked No42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+122.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ba7…3ad3backed No47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No55c2,931$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.5817948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd249…678fbacked Yes35c2,872$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-85.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c55…9e26backed Yes37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.114641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd502…19e1backed Yes66c2,693$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.27714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid+15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No47c2,679$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.6815941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed No57c2,609$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.214959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe643…b688backed No33c2,609$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.333100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+131.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked No40c2,503$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.651330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick15cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2f62backed No23c2,500$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick31cpaid+215.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked No72c2,493$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.1210143.6%44 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb428…fb3dbacked Yes47c2,368$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae7…9603backed No26c2,232$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,657.636656.1%37 W · 29 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+39.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xae57…45e2backed No50c2,219$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.14425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x822e…5febbacked No49c2,200$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.246344.4%28 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72cb…8884backed No54c2,194$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+135.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No72c2,181$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.219543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa83…537bbacked Yes61c2,141$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3003060%18 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cd5…30f0backed No36c2,139$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.911225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc781…2523backed No23c2,094$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+335.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa85f…ac2bbacked No54c2,093$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.842657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a47…740bbacked No40c2,026$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.62853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No36c2,015$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.173834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3df7…f332backed No67c2,000$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6655352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89c6…6f63backed No47c2,000$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed No63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7404751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a14…045cbacked No43c2,000$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.552850%14 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x91a8…b42ebacked No13c1,999$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.94633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+55.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes60c1,997$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20310045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed No64c1,924$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.21457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b9…74d8backed No60c1,886$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.822770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed No48c1,884$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.421741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked No49c1,851$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.449920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No27c1,849$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.189942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6581…0206backed Yes66c1,832$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.032045%9 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4902…7214backed No47c1,800$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9511450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fdf…0971backed No12c1,762$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.921080%8 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+145.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf561…ba3bbacked Yes41c1,752$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.261241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No39c1,710$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.3115362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x40a8…7a0abacked No38c1,705$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb67…e62abacked Yes68c1,700$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1561926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2682…439dbacked Yes53c1,700$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cab…417abacked No51c1,693$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.752356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.