TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeb67…e62a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$324
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$315
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,156Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,156
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,339Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$1,339.47
Over $26M committed to the Space public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Over $30M committed to the Space public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$164.99
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$84
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$552Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+51.5%+$284.27
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$376.57
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$942Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+58.7%+$553.15
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$65
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$693Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+29.9%+$207
Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+42.9%+$240
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$639.99
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$420
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,995Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,995.12
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$589Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$588.7
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,046Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$1,007.54
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "GOAT" or "Greatest Of All Time" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$54
Will the announcers say "Vertical" or "Verticality" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.6
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.2
Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+100%+$38.76
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.8
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$27.2
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+435.5%+$1,057.25
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$192
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+300%+$600
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.9
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.74
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$390
Iran strike on US military by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$310
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$255.94
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Will the US strike Yemen next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$35.01
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+75.4%+$429.99
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$476Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+47.1%+$224
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,314Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+37%+$486
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+63.9%+$389.99
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$777Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+28.7%+$223.23
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$490
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+222.6%+$138
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$88.89
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$108
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$230
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$513
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$312
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-78.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+885.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+257.1%+$1,295.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,787Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+25.5%+$455.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$58.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$170
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$339.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$203.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.