TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$398,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$407,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb100…6461backed No66c19,268$12,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,525.15137.3%19 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x543b…4bb0backed No42c18,040$7,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,514.461428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed Yes55c15,800$8,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,615.44938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes45c14,507$6,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,536.941040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed No57c6,553$3,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,842.221741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes30c6,542$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9504148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c6,329$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.071712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6534…4700backed Yes0c6,309$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…03c5backed Yes37c5,746$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.477657.9%44 W · 32 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8931…8a5fbacked Yes1c5,378$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c5,358$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.783283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c42…6e3bbacked Yes1c5,226$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdda0…9553backed Yes39c3,891$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.351154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f2…f419backed Yes13c3,787$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95c2…5a17backed Yes8c3,559$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes8c3,500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28580%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No40c3,036$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.996841.2%28 W · 40 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3cd…af7abacked No56c3,004$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.781172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbebf…4e07backed Yes4c3,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1217061.4%43 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c2,862$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.992061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bdd…c9a9backed Yes22c2,797$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.944736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes1c2,691$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf1f…5317backed Yes14c2,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-46.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x986f…438bbacked Yes13c2,500$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3163432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c6…910ebacked Yes34c2,483$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.055125.5%13 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14f7…232cbacked Yes1c2,463$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked No63c2,462$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.94955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d5…6b9abacked Yes36c2,230$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.651127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x009d…bcebbacked Yes48c2,150$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No55c2,118$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.057255.6%40 W · 32 L+11.3wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+42.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Yes63c2,051$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.631741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+170.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Yes11c2,048$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.66933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x921c…5742backed Yes26c2,048$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.8740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee3e…ebb5backed Yes58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes3c1,992$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.758854.5%48 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No71c1,964$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.243256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dc…bb81backed Yes50c1,957$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.51850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,750$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-80.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8716…c958backed No79c1,602$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.9944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-41.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3531…4fb3backed No36c1,550$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.14129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c1,537$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.162442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c1,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3944…6763backed Yes1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912c…f23abacked Yes47c1,480$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3118…05f0backed Yes43c1,375$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.18771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa0e…869fbacked Yes41c1,327$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55050%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb187…bbe1backed No38c1,280$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.961546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No47c1,279$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.71070%7 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+118.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes17c1,238$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.1925422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bc3…73d1backed No39c1,185$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.8910340.8%42 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,175$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.422541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6233…cefdbacked Yes64c1,165$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.79450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb99…4daebacked No25c1,145$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.299222.8%21 W · 71 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb73e…7204backed Yes6c1,140$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-57.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No57c1,117$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.251850%9 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes8c1,109$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.419920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked No39c1,090$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.0914335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd0…0f8cbacked No14c1,078$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.58560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+119.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes4c1,073$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.813716.2%6 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x866f…d410backed Yes53c1,060$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5622339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72c3…5777backed Yes71c1,047$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes19c1,033$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.45618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdaa4…727fbacked Yes39c1,012$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x052a…4df7backed Yes46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46050%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed No50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x599b…d994backed No7c1,000$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+221.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes3c999.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b84…ccf2backed Yes5c999.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503327.3%9 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+62.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes6c992.42$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5413023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No48c962.21$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.21850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c958.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.372333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8382…f44ebacked Yes4c926.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.211241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b05…6180backed Yes15c899.98$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No13c887$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.043834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed Yes44c877.21$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.093237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59de…64e8backed No46c867.92$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.921163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20a5…0e31backed Yes35c842.77$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick42cpaid+90.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f18…c735backed No43c761.8$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.17475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08e0…bfdfbacked No44c759.93$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c9…a012backed No36c750$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.91770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+58.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed0c…5e23backed Yes76c728$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.61241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9431…e055backed Yes16c724$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6640%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2837…e56fbacked Yes6c714.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-87.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4da…5fa1backed Yes68c700$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d8…969ebacked No67c685.99$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.99475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+64.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed No18c682.34$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.458017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13ba…be9fbacked No58c672.19$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.71450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2805…2a1bbacked Yes40c668.23$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.021020%2 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-68%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Yes45c659.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd062…7929backed No47c649.99$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3452744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fdf…1561backed No77c648.31$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.291050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d4d…b3f4backed No7c645.31$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.147047.1%33 W · 37 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x880e…4637backed No54c630$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.81216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-73.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked Yes73c604.89$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.828728.7%25 W · 62 L-14.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes4c600$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22510%0 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb67…e62abacked Yes54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3241926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No31c599.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41415539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8616…ae57backed Yes5c585.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.871723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb9d…d2c3backed Yes62c564.63$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e07…e66fbacked Yes10c546.58$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.141414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.