Token Launches · resolved market
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2209290b297ce5e5919273cb9189c1788649ea584f04e07ef0d438149fe8400
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,057 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 28,236$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…fcb0backed No | 0c | 21,252$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 1c | 11,111$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…0b76backed No | 1c | 10,569$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 6,516$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…cfb9backed No | 1c | 5,305$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 5,105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,318$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed No | 0c | 4,302$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 4,157$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1db…9877backed No | 0c | 3,395$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 2,959$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…8601backed No | 1c | 2,848$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed No | 1c | 2,801$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…1e9bbacked No | 1c | 2,639$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 1c | 2,165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 1c | 2,118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 1c | 2,019$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…23f2backed No | 1c | 1,315$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…3cd0backed No | 1c | 1,057$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…177fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 2c | 742.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 5c | 406.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.