Token Launches · resolved market
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x183a3e49c10e27fa8f6e182a229947dee657b1642ea22d729753b3a05555b842
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $747,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $747,379 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 2c | 55,313$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.6 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cd…8715backed No | 1c | 38,046$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 36,021$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.36 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 3c | 34,967$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.85 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 1c | 29,906$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.6 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 1c | 27,723$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…7128backed No | 2c | 24,986$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…dcedbacked No | 1c | 18,551$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed No | 1c | 14,870$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.86 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed No | 2c | 13,248$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.65 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 27cpaid | +231.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 1c | 11,111$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed No | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…7984backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…da6dbacked No | 1c | 9,739$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 1c | 9,046$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 1c | 8,659$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 8,474$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…2a3dbacked No | 3c | 8,345$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 7,818$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed No | 1c | 5,274$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked No | 1c | 4,761$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked No | 1c | 4,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda8…e2ffbacked No | 3c | 4,167$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +147.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 1c | 3,862$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bb…19e6backed No | 1c | 3,850$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…1f26backed No | 3c | 3,486$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 2c | 3,460$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…a6c5backed No | 3c | 3,252$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…fec6backed No | 1c | 3,050$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed No | 1c | 3,028$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 1c | 2,891$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed No | 2c | 2,853$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed No | 1c | 2,825$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…9297backed No | 2c | 2,750$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 2,730$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c08…1ff6backed No | 1c | 2,558$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed No | 2c | 2,503$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…b993backed No | 1c | 2,443$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…b892backed No | 1c | 2,290$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5049…ae27backed No | 2c | 2,200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 2,172$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…1e9bbacked No | 3c | 2,064$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed No | 1c | 2,037$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked No | 1c | 1,962$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,911$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 1c | 1,906$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed No | 1c | 1,906$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…9689backed No | 2c | 1,872$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 1c | 1,508$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa696…d40ebacked No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 1c | 1,458$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…177fbacked No | 4c | 1,430$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…bd44backed No | 2c | 1,419$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +293.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 1c | 1,299$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5334…a8d6backed No | 1c | 1,285$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 1c | 1,272$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked No | 3c | 1,134$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 2c | 1,109$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…df10backed No | 2c | 1,104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 1c | 1,052$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…d0debacked No | 1c | 1,038$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5972backed No | 2c | 1,007$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bc…9ee2backed No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a58…4483backed No | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 3c | 989.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 2c | 964.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…9ac0backed No | 2c | 894.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60f…6c4bbacked No | 2c | 891.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…ca48backed No | 2c | 888.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 2c | 760.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 2c | 752.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 2c | 708.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…7204backed No | 5c | 618.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 541.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 3c | 402.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…1ff3backed No | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.