TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,361,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,361,114 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0f09…d360backed No0c62,625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94cf…3db3backed No7c43,331$2,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd108…6bbcbacked No0c41,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c34,134$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.941712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93cc…ee84backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x991d…88e3backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No15c22,202$3,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,256.551145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed No2c21,296$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb623…4203backed No13c20,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed No11c18,162$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.521741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No0c17,529$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-54.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked No2c17,371$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.110336.9%38 W · 65 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b84…ccf2backed No0c17,311$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.313327.3%9 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+62.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No17c16,180$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,691.245137.3%19 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked No7c12,447$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.3614335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x617f…4336backed No0c12,321$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x113b…7afdbacked No0c12,225$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c10,822$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.893283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No5c10,286$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.08618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x350e…7528backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0cc…70babacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4cb…001bbacked No0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+599.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No5c9,432$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.541010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-86.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d28…cc93backed No0c8,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd480…ddc8backed No1c8,322$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6040…4c57backed No12c7,359$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed0…824ebacked No11c6,935$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+292.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cb…dcedbacked No5c6,841$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ae…e386backed No5c6,666$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c6,455$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.262442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc129…c6c2backed No3c6,413$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3290…f4bdbacked No6c6,310$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3482821.4%6 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+63.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c6,282$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.27663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9582…9891backed No3c6,280$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.751741.2%7 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick23cpaid+12.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No2c6,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c5,346$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.612541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No14c5,125$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.39850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb24e…c0bebacked Yes77c5,105$3,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.213938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd802…e262backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435f…29b5backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No0c4,998$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.48462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-80.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c4,977$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.232061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed No8c4,876$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.243237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6130…7fb2backed No2c4,658$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d8…969ebacked No15c4,503$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.69475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+64.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f18…c735backed No10c4,293$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No10c3,980$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.193495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd585…b1b9backed No3c3,663$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+456.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3837…82a0backed No6c3,489$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a1…c14fbacked No5c3,372$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No5c3,316$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.633834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x129b…24c4backed No5c3,132$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505851.7%30 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No8c2,965$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.572377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed No11c2,931$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c2,829$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.062333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c42…6e3bbacked No15c2,744$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.38540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91da…6d5ebacked No1c2,556$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No7c2,532$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.632917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No8c2,520$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.667546.7%35 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc56a…65fdbacked No6c2,403$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f0…5923backed No4c2,393$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No7c2,333$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8525422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No11c2,222$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.645623.2%13 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No6c2,196$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.96841.2%28 W · 40 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c2,146$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.6635712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x492d…daa3backed No2c2,089$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No5c2,059$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.861243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad9…7bf6backed No8c2,027$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.071464.3%9 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.38per pick27cpaid+231.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc2ca…04f5backed No1c2,011$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No8c2,000$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.874320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781a…96e6backed No5c2,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+64.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No5c1,916$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.723841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2d62…0a41backed No5c1,890$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3547…b926backed No7c1,785$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No6c1,765$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.491234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebc…93dfbacked No1c1,765$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No2c1,726$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.96510%0 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No8c1,720$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.223043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f40…e9a8backed No6c1,718$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87f4…9ed0backed No9c1,631$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.154235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No5c1,604$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.712094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed No3c1,600$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.31330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No6c1,587$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.351343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8952…1f26backed No13c1,571$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2a…2f1fbacked No2c1,528$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417e…15e5backed No7c1,416$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.67633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…2d33backed No7c1,374$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed No11c1,362$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No7c1,354$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.914548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff2…9070backed No2c1,319$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf68…474ebacked No5c1,237$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.171741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9db…d937backed No3c1,220$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.121020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d3…9147backed No8c1,198$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.522646.2%12 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+40.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No1c1,165$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56400%0 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5334…a8d6backed No2c1,162$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3782…3ef4backed No6c1,156$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ea…3508backed No1c1,147$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aca…c60abacked No8c1,139$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.06450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+88.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…ea6fbacked No2c1,138$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf581…0892backed No5c1,106$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.69560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+195.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.