TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1f6b…267e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
429
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST13818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 138 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+40.8%+$29
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+25%+$20
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17.1
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.3
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$116
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$52
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$295.09
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$123
Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+59.2%+$6.36
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$210
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 27, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$532Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$532.02
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$62.4
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$27.68
Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$37.23
Will the government shutdown end November 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$27.06
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$879Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$879.18
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+67.2%+$34.15
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$115.81
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.31
Showing 25 of 138 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestoneslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT9427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 94 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 17-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.1
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 July 13-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.3
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.71
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.67
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$130.81
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.48
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+165.3%+$252.6
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.28
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.14
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$21.3
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$87
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$499.69
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 9-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.11
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.2
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$190
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$22.16
Showing 25 of 94 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$915Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$915.4
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$446Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$445.97
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.97
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.58
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$191.85
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.18
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$52.13
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$53.65
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will GPT win the okbet trading competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+200.3%+$66.7
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$26.08
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$130.26
Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$132.05
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$40.02
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$212.86
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$16.34
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$16.62
Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT2218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$168
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.53
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.75
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Erling Haaland: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.25
Norway vs. England: Norway O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Norway vs. England: Norway O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.49
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.25
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.37
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.99
Argentina vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+263.6%+$724.99
Argentina vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$396
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$54
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+48.8%+$65.6
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Cabo Verde · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.4
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$86
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
All 22 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-54.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+194.6%+$266.22
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+58.7%+$74
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$182.3
No token launch by March 31backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$33.97
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$135
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$14.68
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$110.19
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,049Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,049.21
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$989Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$988.73
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$649.1
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$95.49
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+98.8%+$546.69
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$260
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15.87
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$10.08
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$62.1
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$148.12
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$46
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$290
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$77
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.74
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$535.9
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$346.85
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$151.42
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+545.2%+$168.99
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$30
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$23
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$17.83
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+97.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+1,275.8%+$976.45
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.07
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.31
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$43
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.68
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+313.5%+$378.74
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+60%+$37.5
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15.76
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$16
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+1,011.1%+$1,011.11
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+28.2%+$8.8
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.69
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.97
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$70.72
All 17 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 6?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$17.95
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$407.49
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$148.64
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$49.11
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$190.24
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$34.5
Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+1,777.2%+$3,781.51
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$64.9
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.99
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.25
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.41
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.22
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$691Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$690.91
Will Gold hit $3,600 before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+60%+$77.51
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$42.22
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST1330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-30.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+58.7%+$37
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.55
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.4
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.05
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$66
Will Trump lower automobile tariffs on Canada/Mexico by next Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$25.8
Yoon arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST+187.6%+$185.9
Yoon arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$33.5
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$719.7
Will South Korean President lift martial law by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$36.85
Will South Korean President lift martial law today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST+62.8%+$76.02
Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine strike in Russia on 28 November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$21.94
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$107
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+187.4%+$65.2
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$71.04
Nothing Ever Happens backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+31.3%+$95.38
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.9
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.85
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.56
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.66
All 10 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+102.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST80%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-56.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST70%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will it snow in D.C. on Inauguration day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.