TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,326,714
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,296,713

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,326,714 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c87,401$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.542920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20a…2425backed Yes3c75,630$2,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.0560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes10c63,066$6,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,158.742729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c49,739$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.766291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes1c41,049$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.96150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c21…adafbacked Yes0c29,742$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.64110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c24,300$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.932522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c23,886$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.252560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd25b…9f3dbacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c17,001$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.322003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes2c12,566$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.41283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedb…f657backed Yes3c8,409$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe166…2d8fbacked Yes2c7,951$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c7,934$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.5810126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes4c7,757$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.452425%6 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes1c7,665$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.65329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes10c7,411$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.511735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c7,083$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.63486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c7,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7250%0 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes3c6,918$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.561338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes14c6,710$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.961020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc04f…decbbacked Yes2c5,755$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c5,577$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.453042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c4,921$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.25865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes3c4,676$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.79767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c4,001$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.982792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c3,985$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.05717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d6…190ebacked Yes1c3,861$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf124…d6fabacked Yes2c3,837$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.66933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes6c3,644$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.792110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c3,423$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.512560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes2c3,362$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.451816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e04…cb9ebacked Yes1c3,225$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3b…5d31backed Yes12c3,220$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,134$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.491,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c2,785$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.28420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4354…756bbacked Yes2c2,765$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4770%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes1c2,700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.96010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes9c2,666$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.123046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes1c2,665$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.71190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes12c2,644$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.921926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+64.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…6f9abacked Yes6c2,444$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,402$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.821754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b3…eeb2backed Yes7c2,358$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.821921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-68.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes2c2,320$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.94100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes2c2,313$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.915012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04d1…51afbacked Yes13c2,140$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.95650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2efd…44c9backed Yes23c2,120$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b9…de55backed Yes2c2,118$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.32128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf083…5558backed Yes1c2,052$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2180%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed Yes5c1,984$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb42…742cbacked Yes1c1,903$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e70…0012backed Yes2c1,790$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,719$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.56731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbba8…f383backed Yes1c1,621$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.291118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick7cpaid+189.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6484…7102backed Yes2c1,518$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes5c1,510$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2128826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd27…2807backed Yes2c1,500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-77.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c1,492$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.6440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf7bb…b578backed Yes3c1,484$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.41560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16f0…4f1cbacked Yes2c1,479$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08d7…f33cbacked Yes1c1,440$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eeb…ec23backed Yes15c1,420$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.05812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-84.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c40…3d64backed Yes1c1,400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed Yes8c1,400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108234.3%1 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-78.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes1c1,383$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.24230%0 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…4cfbbacked Yes4c1,358$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.95540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes10c1,357$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1918323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf471…b457backed Yes3c1,313$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes2c1,273$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.46911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x753f…2a5fbacked Yes3c1,226$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes7c1,156$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.12175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c1,139$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.562977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf998…1f41backed Yes4c1,104$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b48…0415backed Yes2c1,100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes1c1,087$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.471612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-82.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c1,050$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed Yes20c1,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60f3…54d2backed Yes4c999.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb92…8f58backed Yes4c999.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1842…b628backed Yes23c968.27$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5554…b12dbacked Yes4c926.55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.89100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a10…9977backed Yes8c915.38$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.07933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes10c909.7$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.848442.9%36 W · 48 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes3c836.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3211850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8ec6…dba0backed Yes2c793.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb6…5e8abacked Yes2c773.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes3c772.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-40%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5351…c7edbacked Yes13c765.24$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051d…963ebacked Yes2c760.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f0…be32backed Yes8c699.23$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes14c691$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8918311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6df…9b93backed Yes2c678.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c648.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.761175.1%6 W · 111 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-65.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17ca…5229backed Yes2c648.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes16c604.13$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.099839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes3c587.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3066…6895backed Yes9c574.93$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes3c558.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.33128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick30cpaid-89.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b62…daccbacked Yes12c548.7$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.