AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdbef0a58b5085fb812fc6df2c1fca5bf0ec12c9fe8ccd21718aa4b7b6726a08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,044,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $539,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,044,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 299,874$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.91 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 0c | 58,596$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe959…7c7abacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 26,535$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 25,863$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…c816backed Yes | 0c | 23,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ff…3fbebacked Yes | 0c | 23,379$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4370…10a9backed Yes | 0c | 22,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c86…0ae2backed Yes | 0c | 21,172$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b7…8a76backed Yes | 0c | 20,982$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…6a09backed Yes | 0c | 19,535$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…fc7ebacked Yes | 0c | 16,510$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 12,919$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,128$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…bc2dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5584…6e2abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 11c | 6,214$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.34 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 6,030$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +424.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…adb3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…4f1cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,776$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,030$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed Yes | 5c | 611.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed Yes | 18c | 163.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 14c | 88.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec1…e35dbacked Yes | 20c | 69.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.