AI · resolved market
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b44c6d9fee523810e2868d85e46d58522b174b1e20e75f7912588c46433dfab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,319,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $433,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,319,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe959…7c7abacked Yes | 0c | 326,410$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.41 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d16backed Yes | 0c | 217,529$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb827…b1e9backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 181,359$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.36 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df2…3c04backed Yes | 0c | 166,640$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd497…cf2dbacked Yes | 0c | 149,089$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.09 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ca…1f9abacked Yes | 0c | 135,830$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…20f1backed Yes | 0c | 131,300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca7…a792backed Yes | 0c | 129,900$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…d25cbacked Yes | 0c | 128,840$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…2a65backed Yes | 0c | 117,850$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8695…2686backed Yes | 0c | 107,300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…bc2dbacked Yes | 0c | 104,201$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e67…1302backed Yes | 0c | 103,500$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae7…bbcdbacked Yes | 0c | 89,300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 87,719$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 79,999$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…d0b8backed Yes | 0c | 72,800$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe910…ae9abacked Yes | 0c | 72,770$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…95aabacked Yes | 0c | 72,760$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 0c | 72,371$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd462…d372backed Yes | 0c | 68,340$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8315…8232backed Yes | 0c | 61,890$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…eee7backed Yes | 0c | 60,090$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…43dabacked Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…426ebacked Yes | 0c | 59,210$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7631…98c2backed Yes | 0c | 55,840$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff4…6aebbacked Yes | 0c | 55,310$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…339cbacked Yes | 0c | 53,800$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0af…d7b2backed Yes | 0c | 52,540$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…68e1backed Yes | 0c | 51,680$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d83…f5d0backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb352…2b3bbacked Yes | 0c | 48,150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…fa97backed Yes | 0c | 46,400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…65aabacked Yes | 0c | 44,170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5972…e338backed Yes | 0c | 44,010$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…6943backed Yes | 0c | 40,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…4e55backed Yes | 0c | 40,270$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…7c0fbacked Yes | 0c | 40,040$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ce…48cdbacked Yes | 0c | 38,780$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…e366backed Yes | 0c | 37,670$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…44c4backed Yes | 0c | 33,550$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…6f3ebacked Yes | 0c | 32,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…d886backed Yes | 0c | 31,540$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…8596backed Yes | 0c | 31,270$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf358…7ffbbacked Yes | 0c | 28,120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6504…c74bbacked Yes | 0c | 24,240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,665$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74af…81ddbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 16,665$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095c…de88backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950d…c5d2backed Yes | 0c | 10,605$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…cc32backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4c…68d8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…d8c8backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +424.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…adb3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.