TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,997,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,259,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,997,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 624 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7432…c16abacked No0c127,825$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked No1c81,133$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c34,904$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.6226312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked No1c33,869$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f5…24cbbacked No8c31,281$2,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c31,026$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.252522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c28,705$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.156291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No5c28,676$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.521338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked No19c28,379$5,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,275.991735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf330…718abacked No2c25,360$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No6c24,359$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.054325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No26c19,696$5,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,048.632729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b29…1f46backed No3c18,833$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3b…5d31backed No13c18,449$2,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,476.330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc0…25f8backed Yes75c15,543$11,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,903.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No1c15,391$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.85329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked No0c14,990$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c14,108$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.242560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd9…28abbacked No0c13,626$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No7c13,007$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.883627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c11,351$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.853042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No5c10,915$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.610126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20a…2425backed No10c10,849$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.9260%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No4c10,736$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.655012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No3c10,509$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.148435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No4c10,135$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.178923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No1c10,109$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.83119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No1c10,100$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37a4…7fe5backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes74c8,200$6,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1322458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e34…b86fbacked No13c8,034$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked No1c8,001$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.45120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No19c7,515$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.571020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0170…a17cbacked Yes66c7,471$4,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,547.613100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed No0c6,666$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No25c6,603$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.3920418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c6,479$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.122792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c6,100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked No2c5,979$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.99100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eeb…ec23backed No9c5,700$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-84.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc6…fb06backed No1c5,606$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No6c5,339$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.39865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d3e…3074backed Yes80c5,002$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.754100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fa2…93efbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c4,908$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.640712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No7c4,700$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.79767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4354…756bbacked No4c4,601$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17170%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcc7…3daebacked Yes78c4,461$3,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46e7…f51ebacked No0c4,309$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed Yes63c4,027$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No7c4,001$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.46717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fdb…d414backed Yes74c4,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0401100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed No11c4,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed No9c3,879$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.943125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked No16c3,857$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.84175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd5…079dbacked Yes71c3,767$2,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No14c3,544$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.0920148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No4c3,513$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.6428826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb0c…2da5backed No1c3,126$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No13c3,105$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.9715452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x94b2…9e5abacked No1c3,027$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce7…ea15backed No3c2,928$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No14c2,863$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.281225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-47.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes79c2,724$2,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.4718323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd453…4b1bbacked No2c2,668$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed No3c2,620$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.486010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No2c2,615$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.151711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc936…ec95backed No2c2,412$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b3…eeb2backed Yes75c2,385$1,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.661921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-68.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No3c2,373$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.92731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes79c2,349$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.331369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.1wins0.00per pick69cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed No2c2,345$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.31612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-82.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No2c2,323$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.78790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No4c2,222$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No3c2,177$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.094944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes80c2,090$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.63046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No38c2,000$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76211425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ee…54f8backed No1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-56.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed No3c2,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No2c2,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442227.3%6 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed No1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00cd…55c9backed No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718e…3ef9backed No12c1,897$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes55c1,855$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.965848.3%28 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+75.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed No1c1,818$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No34c1,803$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.2111841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x294d…b362backed Yes75c1,785$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-81%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked No2c1,778$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9762…3febbacked Yes79c1,742$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.193100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+59.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10c6…19b6backed Yes67c1,700$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf264…9e0fbacked Yes76c1,677$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5b…5c9ebacked No1c1,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No2c1,664$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.622462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes65c1,650$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67f1…e77abacked No2c1,588$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd4…ba2fbacked Yes72c1,547$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Yes75c1,458$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.89812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-83.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No1c1,420$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.84420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No7c1,400$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93234.3%1 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-78.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.