TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf7b3…eeb2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Commodities, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$767Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$382.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,212Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$837.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$582Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$581.66
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,511Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+68.7%+$1,038.5
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$43.75
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$101
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,934Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.2%+$777.22
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.1
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+51.8%+$136.5
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+76.9%+$500
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$229
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+45.7%+$58
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+137%+$289
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$648.62
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$689Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$688.79
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$56.5
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$243.75
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,246Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+28.4%+$353.8
All 19 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-68.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$54.1
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.29
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.1
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.56
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+99.8%+$413.07
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$668Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$668.17
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.68
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,796Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+32.8%+$589.66
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,147Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,147.43
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$519Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$518.88
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$194.9
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$172.82
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$107.87
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$47.92
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$15
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$703Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$703.19
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,368Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,367.99
OpenAI browser by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,891Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+35.4%+$668.88
OpenAI social app in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$477.42
All 19 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,402Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,401.62
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$832Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$832.42
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,694Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,693.72
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$509Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$509.34
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,050Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+60.6%+$1,243.45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+43.7%+$480.63
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,159Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+59.6%+$690.48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$20.45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$21
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+44.3%+$95.19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$11
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$46
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+76.7%+$108.5
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.3%+$688.68
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$558Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$558.18
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$532Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$531.67
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$342.16
Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,002Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+26.5%+$265.39
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.65
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+208.8%+$473.89
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,257Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+25.9%+$325.17
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+106.6%+$450.97
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$228
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+51%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,129.71
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,560.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$906Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$905.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.