Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d467264fe8f54f07942b1366dad8c8bfc6c10a524b2a54d5606ef28611f8242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc19f…3fcdbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…6294backed No | 1c | 5,178$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…f507backed Yes | 71c | 2,367$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…38e5backed No | 19c | 1,423$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -42%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…35acbacked Yes | 77c | 1,201$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.43 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked No | 3c | 1,121$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d64…26cebacked No | 24c | 1,096$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 947.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed No | 10c | 859.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 17c | 710.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa651…1fd0backed No | 27c | 557.12$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 27c | 400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836a…deb1backed Yes | 79c | 367.08$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 71c | 309.54$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x915c…7730backed No | 27c | 297$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 16c | 291.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No | 22c | 274.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 10c | 272.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked No | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed No | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…61b9backed No | 28c | 142$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 72c | 138.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…65c4backed No | 39c | 127.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…eeb2backed Yes | 80c | 100.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3f…ca5abacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…e41dbacked No | 45c | 83.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…04f7backed No | 26c | 83.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9d…1bcfbacked No | 19c | 78.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked No | 29c | 75.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…674fbacked No | 28c | 47.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd50…84adbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4511…918fbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b4…a38abacked Yes | 76c | 39.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…9abbbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.