TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,395,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,510,286

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,395,079 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes7c233,991$16,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,208.4310930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes2c21,891$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.45707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c20,256$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.98140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c1…f6bebacked Yes8c18,987$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes9c18,188$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.8930238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e62…c577backed Yes5c17,849$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.93214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-69.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed Yes7c15,879$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes5c15,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7507244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c14,407$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.822221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba8…5968backed Yes10c13,685$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked Yes8c12,500$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.291050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c11,219$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.86948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes7c10,741$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.581315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes2c10,101$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.359317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x576f…819abacked Yes9c9,814$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.08454.4%2 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-81.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b08…0720backed Yes6c9,596$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes2c8,557$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.39254%1 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b91…a535backed Yes5c8,396$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes5c8,038$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.7129436.1%106 W · 188 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes12c7,341$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.92417.3%3 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-81.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed Yes6c7,302$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.094542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25d7…c2bfbacked Yes3c7,081$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.81160%0 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef00…c61abacked Yes3c6,930$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf505…7a35backed Yes9c6,746$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.11275%9 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+118.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes2c6,380$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.812626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed Yes2c6,337$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.280%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes3c6,064$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.76979.3%9 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes5c6,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes2c5,925$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.98224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes1c5,634$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3915020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes3c5,239$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.311246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes6c5,076$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.332023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac29…36c7backed Yes2c5,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+339.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes10c4,728$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.545151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9548…655fbacked Yes3c4,280$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes4c4,249$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1609422.3%21 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e4e…c0f5backed Yes6c4,183$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x96a4…ed03backed Yes6c4,100$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc70b…03dbbacked Yes6c3,343$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbea…ea49backed Yes3c2,887$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.35911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3577…31e6backed Yes7c2,666$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.391030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes7c2,571$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes12c2,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004257.1%24 W · 18 L+7.7wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+37.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Yes8c2,412$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.94911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-86.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed Yes7c2,406$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.451926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-41.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0947…a830backed Yes7c2,356$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick18cpaid+94.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Yes2c2,300$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes3c2,217$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1619923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes12c2,087$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.487335.6%26 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08d3…2150backed Yes5c2,031$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.23147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6d…bec8backed Yes9c1,958$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick14cpaid+355.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd565…69a4backed Yes1c1,890$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33b0…fa5dbacked Yes3c1,783$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes9c1,757$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.691915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce00…7ce0backed Yes2c1,667$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fc…03b0backed Yes7c1,665$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-50.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes5c1,627$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.331723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fd…6acfbacked Yes6c1,590$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9849…2ee5backed Yes6c1,457$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes7c1,414$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3320624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c1,393$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.33840%0 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes2c1,391$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263125.8%8 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x027c…6ecdbacked Yes11c1,317$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick28cpaid+159.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8fc…ff46backed Yes7c1,310$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b4…a38abacked Yes1c1,308$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-38.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,266$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.871,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd96…6a46backed Yes7c1,260$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.991442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6130…1392backed Yes9c1,230$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+75.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dfb…dffabacked Yes7c1,217$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes7c1,206$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.513949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0c30…6759backed Yes10c1,164$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.351612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8af…0550backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe602…a28dbacked Yes7c1,111$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0608…ff08backed Yes1c1,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes3c1,006$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1827322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93cd…f8d7backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9619…0591backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x983c…6be7backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-65.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x25f0…1facbacked Yes6c999.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes5c999.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993e…7c69backed Yes2c994.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb935…204bbacked Yes7c958$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.063218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes8c909.9$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfa…ba27backed Yes9c906.78$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe147…a042backed Yes7c856.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ed…aa53backed Yes12c840$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.83158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d9…63cdbacked Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-72.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad7d…251fbacked Yes11c818.18$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eec…600bbacked Yes7c816.94$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked Yes11c809.55$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes6c721$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.26714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes8c700$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f7f…d498backed Yes7c700$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c699.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97a8…e615backed Yes6c673.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes3c660.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52234.3%1 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-90.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74c2…891abacked Yes7c648.79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes8c619.52$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.62140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x366a…ebeabacked Yes8c618.74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.