TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,780,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,167,687

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,780,354 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes9c124,595$10,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,905.5410930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes5c93,968$4,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,289.269317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes7c91,301$6,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,239.211921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Yes4c77,734$3,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,243.751513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0b…840abacked Yes12c56,937$6,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,907.73140%0 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xafc0…5087backed Yes15c37,419$5,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,489.052722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes3c37,021$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.87707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…60b5backed Yes9c35,640$3,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,071.5760%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes7c34,618$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.19180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c33,907$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes5c33,680$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.847244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Yes15c25,000$3,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…3068backed Yes4c24,312$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.41811.1%2 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid+16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes4c24,056$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.25120%0 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes4c22,142$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9903125.8%8 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c27…d050backed Yes2c20,399$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.31100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x576f…819abacked Yes10c17,359$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.38454.4%2 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-81.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3be5…867ebacked Yes6c17,046$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes10c16,255$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.097335.6%26 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7607…c74bbacked Yes4c15,882$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.9313.2%1 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x740c…d013backed Yes13c15,044$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,914.564122%9 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes5c14,842$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.31618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes7c14,268$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.695115.7%8 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c14,017$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.43948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1bf…11d7backed Yes11c13,455$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.05850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…05eabacked Yes2c13,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x744a…923bbacked Yes4c13,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae21…d7d9backed Yes1c12,394$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x551b…b47ebacked Yes4c12,331$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes4c12,166$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.472313%3 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94c4…43cabacked Yes3c12,145$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.13616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-76.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe340…ce0dbacked Yes5c11,967$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.560%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3532…663abacked Yes1c11,837$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes11c11,250$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.511628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb057…0a24backed Yes17c10,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes3c10,000$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2787711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…1672backed Yes1c9,623$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5590%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes1c9,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.25580%0 W · 58 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes10c9,312$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.0932023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes4c9,102$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.05254%1 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed Yes13c8,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0402227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-52.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe36f…cd91backed Yes5c7,981$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.081127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes2c7,748$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.22979.3%9 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09b1…0d3ebacked Yes4c6,885$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7313…25ddbacked Yes15c6,871$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd88…4037backed Yes16c6,427$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.482737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-42%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf21e…d0cabacked Yes6c6,287$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ad…bd19backed Yes11c6,127$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.74147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1664…a0cebacked Yes8c6,000$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4671612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-80.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes10c5,599$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.333630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes2c5,451$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.141246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb98e…eceebacked Yes4c5,263$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-62.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2720…7c5cbacked Yes2c5,017$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.15140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc360…dbb2backed Yes13c4,454$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.221735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-33.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa65e…1b08backed Yes12c4,299$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2800…9840backed Yes10c4,152$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.422910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-71.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3f5…e804backed Yes11c4,129$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b9…396abacked Yes5c4,108$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ca…7229backed Yes4c3,652$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.91850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Yes6c3,600$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.536937.7%26 W · 43 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+289%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15af…9e32backed Yes11c3,210$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.3760%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed Yes6c3,129$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.696526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes17c3,098$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.647930.4%24 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab18…467dbacked Yes1c3,050$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.13036.7%11 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes15c3,001$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.471040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes4c3,000$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef22…8c02backed Yes2c3,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.81140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629f…6babbacked Yes11c2,990$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.5950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…4a2abacked Yes10c2,978$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c0…d0a6backed Yes3c2,969$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c1…384ebacked Yes4c2,733$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f2…0158backed Yes4c2,251$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes5c2,226$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.919914.1%14 W · 85 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Yes5c2,222$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.543036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes7c2,184$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.132821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes14c2,163$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.313135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x888a…19ffbacked Yes17c2,087$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f62…90a2backed Yes12c2,066$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed Yes4c2,021$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.592711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38b0…dd47backed Yes11c2,000$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes15c2,000$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick41cpaid-68%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x25d7…c2bfbacked Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30160%0 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes14c2,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27011734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes4c2,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8414849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed Yes4c2,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e3f…9ed2backed Yes11c2,000$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.08267.7%2 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-85.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes13c1,939$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.2614031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes13c1,881$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.391,26524.5%310 W · 955 L-56.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes4c1,611$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.14224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-89.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b8…3cd5backed Yes11c1,511$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7280%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes7c1,400$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923619.4%7 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-65.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0a3e…fde0backed Yes7c1,400$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf75f…0988backed Yes3c1,397$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.35326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-81.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes1c1,363$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7115020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfecf…13d2backed Yes4c1,338$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8170%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4602…2f95backed Yes4c1,316$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes10c1,300$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.684112.2%5 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c1c…2b32backed Yes11c1,285$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b7c…09f9backed Yes4c1,255$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.