Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b0a049df1acdbb9df107f826f0b9e49c25de067be4086cdaab2a844dffcc38f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $600,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $808,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $600,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes | 2c | 81,883$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.09 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1a…bf63backed Yes | 4c | 54,207$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 3c | 25,859$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.99 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…2128backed Yes | 2c | 14,277$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 0c | 9,767$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed Yes | 3c | 6,997$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.93 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…92adbacked Yes | 2c | 6,886$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576f…819abacked Yes | 4c | 5,591$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.26 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 4c | 5,488$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.36 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…c0f5backed Yes | 2c | 5,216$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 4,681$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…6ecdbacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 3c | 3,448$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 3,139$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…856bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…f507backed Yes | 2c | 2,488$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…c577backed Yes | 1c | 2,403$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…03dbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,068$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 1c | 1,737$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2223…f7f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,611$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2b…a44cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,145$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…ff46backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c2…891abacked Yes | 4c | 921.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7981…eb51backed Yes | 2c | 861.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51a…eaf2backed Yes | 2c | 680.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 4c | 680.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f9…3d22backed Yes | 2c | 565.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a7…0b46backed Yes | 2c | 533.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 532.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…17cabacked Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6088…27b4backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…31e6backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…2bdfbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 3c | 456$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 3c | 330$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…2ee5backed Yes | 3c | 314.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.