Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4f0430b00afe2f71f9cb65054b3a706d4304b49b9360c12b4bb55575411474d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70d8…8243backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 6c | 5,736$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.08 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 7c | 4,740$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.06 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed No | 9c | 3,812$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 8c | 3,696$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.64 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 4c | 2,661$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…f182backed No | 9c | 2,216$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4d…0191backed No | 7c | 2,025$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…d013backed No | 9c | 1,830$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 9c | 1,389$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked No | 9c | 1,300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a5…1f45backed No | 6c | 1,167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa4…d419backed No | 9c | 1,153$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 6c | 1,042$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…5a0fbacked No | 8c | 1,001$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7025…229dbacked No | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 2c | 785.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…cc55backed No | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 704$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…5d0ebacked No | 8c | 655.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 5c | 587.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…e13cbacked No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3b…8c8dbacked No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 8c | 393$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…8150backed No | 8c | 352.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x627d…7d68backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 8c | 277.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc9…ec4bbacked No | 10c | 259.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…f8e8backed No | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…be18backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…2ba5backed No | 6c | 221.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 7c | 214.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…a454backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…feb9backed No | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked No | 9c | 198.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 8c | 197.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa949…089ebacked No | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…1afebacked No | 8c | 152.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…975bbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.