TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,096,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,965,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,096,045 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 250 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes5c204,473$11,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,108.0210930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes4c181,831$8,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,048.831315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e71…ba82backed Yes10c100,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f0…aae9backed Yes2c78,358$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafc0…5087backed Yes6c56,728$3,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,657.792722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes2c49,368$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.58707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x933f…1540backed Yes6c45,000$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,690.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes1c38,450$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.71580%0 W · 58 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Yes2c38,144$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.551513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0b…840abacked Yes6c38,000$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,410.78140%0 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1664…a0cebacked Yes7c36,143$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.011612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-80.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf71f…043abacked Yes5c34,770$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.481136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…60b5backed Yes7c34,500$2,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,31360%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes1c34,103$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6254%1 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad06…2dfabacked Yes2c33,194$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Yes5c31,334$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.576937.7%26 W · 43 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+289%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes2c30,885$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.587244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes3c27,069$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.7432023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x740c…d013backed Yes6c25,277$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.884122%9 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94c4…43cabacked Yes1c25,005$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-76.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c23,466$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.43392.6%1 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7607…c74bbacked Yes3c21,494$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.21313.2%1 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…7322backed Yes2c20,661$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef22…8c02backed Yes1c20,001$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.88140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25e…9861backed Yes5c20,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3532…663abacked Yes2c20,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb057…0a24backed Yes9c20,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes7c18,877$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.887335.6%26 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes1c18,796$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15af…9e32backed Yes8c17,919$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.9760%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes0c17,903$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…605fbacked Yes4c16,983$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.191625%4 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes3c16,432$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.369317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a2…5577backed Yes0c16,358$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes9c16,001$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.071040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69a0…3eafbacked Yes8c15,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ccc…5a0fbacked Yes8c14,965$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.96140%0 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c27…d050backed Yes2c14,870$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c14,826$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.56948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb9…be45backed Yes1c14,338$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc31…7e2bbacked Yes3c14,314$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.1345.9%2 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes7c13,727$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.871421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-62.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe340…ce0dbacked Yes4c13,725$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.5460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b12…f8e4backed Yes2c11,240$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd1e…6c7bbacked Yes2c10,966$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x576f…819abacked Yes6c10,679$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.89454.4%2 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-81.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dc4…03f6backed Yes11c9,303$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3716…238cbacked Yes1c9,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eee…2cecbacked Yes9c8,952$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c8,680$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.66230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4343…3be2backed Yes3c8,456$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.24616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+182.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…1fb6backed Yes1c8,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes2c7,524$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3811921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed Yes3c7,067$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.832711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes1c6,980$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.431246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f5…f507backed Yes4c6,977$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.341747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-27.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0954…1672backed Yes2c6,404$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0690%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe3…883dbacked Yes2c6,396$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c24…a4a5backed Yes6c6,222$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed Yes2c6,112$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.786526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c97…8be7backed Yes5c5,833$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.981711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdff3…531dbacked Yes2c5,492$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27e…ee72backed Yes1c5,210$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes5c5,161$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.07520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-46%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc9…3e5cbacked Yes8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b2a…160dbacked Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes2c5,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes1c4,992$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.82979.3%9 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2800…9840backed Yes7c4,864$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.662910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-71.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x355a…df6cbacked Yes10c4,833$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.3970%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdb3…220ebacked Yes9c4,480$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.860%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x473c…4f61backed Yes10c4,111$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc545…dc80backed Yes6c4,095$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecd…192cbacked Yes5c4,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d7…c2bfbacked Yes5c4,000$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182160%0 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes1c4,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes4c3,987$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.09955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24c7…82c5backed Yes7c3,675$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.9390%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecf…13d2backed Yes3c3,229$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3670%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25c5…0817backed Yes5c3,187$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x234e…65d2backed Yes2c3,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes4c2,900$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5310739.3%42 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes6c2,889$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1705121.6%11 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f2…0158backed Yes4c2,778$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2b3…7469backed Yes6c2,756$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2945…c6ddbacked Yes2c2,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97b6…02c7backed Yes6c2,525$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick16cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf47d…9c85backed Yes2c2,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes7c2,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18011628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes6c2,457$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.982821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c0…d0a6backed Yes2c2,404$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes4c2,400$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.533718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf75f…0988backed Yes4c2,393$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.53326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-81.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed Yes4c2,340$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.86757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc46…899abacked Yes3c2,327$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.22210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1307…bd75backed Yes9c2,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes2c2,222$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.419914.1%14 W · 85 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2720…7c5cbacked Yes1c2,200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299b…47b9backed Yes0c2,200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.