Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2b66bf4f32fcf3b135665209b8267a6749d26f0b6ffc89ac80203bfeb32b4cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $583,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $507,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $583,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e88…efaebacked No | 0c | 97,500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 0c | 77,189$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…e8e3backed No | 1c | 50,459$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…e98bbacked No | 0c | 48,100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed No | 0c | 40,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…e459backed No | 0c | 36,632$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked No | 0c | 26,825$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…7688backed No | 7c | 24,318$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3064…d5f4backed No | 0c | 15,840$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…fb27backed No | 1c | 15,084$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 11,151$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed No | 3c | 9,184$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x271b…e1ffbacked No | 0c | 4,375$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 2c | 3,030$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked No | 1c | 2,597$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…d013backed No | 2c | 2,420$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9561…0570backed No | 1c | 2,108$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked No | 1c | 2,014$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4314backed No | 2c | 1,840$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…2f1ebacked No | 7c | 1,518$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed No | 2c | 1,341$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 1c | 1,224$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…eff6backed No | 1c | 1,214$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed No | 1c | 1,117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked No | 5c | 984.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dd…dafebacked No | 2c | 982.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 1c | 834.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…72a0backed No | 2c | 774.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 3c | 645$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 2c | 566.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…c11abacked No | 2c | 516.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…10fabacked No | 4c | 390$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…04babacked No | 4c | 342.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed68…236cbacked No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.