TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xda64…b94c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
284
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 57 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT13718.2%25 W · 112 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 137 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+311%+$113.5
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.1
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+430.3%+$154.17
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.15
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+769.7%+$268.03
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+227.1%+$40.87
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$13.87
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.97
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$57.97
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.22
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.33
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.54
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.47
Showing 25 of 137 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT3930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.15
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.73
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$352.69
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+107.5%+$22.81
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+193.7%+$103.55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$41.22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+261.6%+$223.61
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+49.1%+$32.28
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+1,244.7%+$160.98
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.93
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.7
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.66
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT3630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+247.2%+$60.95
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.6
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.87
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.04
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.4
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$42
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.34
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+62.2%+$11.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$24.4
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$24.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+57.2%+$69.1
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.44
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$19.35
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.8
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+125%+$224.09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$204
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.8
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+241.9%+$56.6
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.8
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT2326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$42.5
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.09
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.08
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.62
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)backed Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$15.45
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$25.45
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.62
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$6.6
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+159.3%+$39.83
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
NHL Playoffs: Bruins vs. Sabres Total Games O/U 5.5backed Under 5.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Sabres vs. Bruinsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+66.6%+$26.63
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.37
Oilers vs. Ducksbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Stars vs. Wildbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.44
All 23 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+67.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+136.6%+$109.7
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.32
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+166.7%+$25
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+769.6%+$88.5
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+50.8%+$101
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$14.73
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.6
All 10 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-85.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.99
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$308.13
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.67
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$5.59
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.91
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.72
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
All 9 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick7cpaid+759.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+488.1%+$352.4
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.