Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x915ad0a0ef24989385d5530a17365c2c4805c84b02d7303da6cc6abb53bc8e55

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $218,122
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $116,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,122 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	17,214$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.13	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	11,230$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	5,860$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.09	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes	0c	4,891$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53d8…8082backed Yes	1c	4,051$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x774f…8779backed Yes	1c	3,088$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.08	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb66a…a924backed Yes	3c	2,744$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes	2c	2,500$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.67	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b9…bffdbacked Yes	3c	2,305$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02b7…cab7backed Yes	0c	2,119$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.23per pick	14cpaid	+80%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x176b…60f9backed Yes	1c	1,931$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	2c	1,864$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.25	71	5.6%4 W · 67 L	-6.1wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-84.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07a5…3351backed Yes	2c	1,656$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1e…42dcbacked Yes	2c	1,653$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf711…7c48backed Yes	2c	1,649$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88a4…d091backed Yes	1c	1,613$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+254.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,563$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	2,181	3.9%85 W · 2,096 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes	2c	1,173$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	928.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf837…4311backed Yes	3c	913.71$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	2c	905.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.97	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	2c	886.63$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4261…8d5bbacked Yes	8c	850.48$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+3.5wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+153.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	774.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.54	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cea…796dbacked Yes	2c	754$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	2c	735.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.79	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	716.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	1,041	11%115 W · 926 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f0…023fbacked Yes	2c	686$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95a9…6326backed Yes	2c	536$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	2c	529.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	285	11.2%32 W · 253 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5722…1658backed Yes	3c	481$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef77…e829backed Yes	3c	481$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff1…67a0backed Yes	3c	473$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x126a…b833backed Yes	3c	453$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f5…75c4backed Yes	2c	441$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…ef6cbacked Yes	3c	419$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes	3c	311.03$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+74.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	7c	161.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event